Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Madrid's March 23 high temperature clustering around 18-20°C, fueling tight trader odds favoring 19°C at 26% implied probability amid mild uncertainty in peak heating. A persistent high-pressure ridge over Iberia is channeling warmer southerly flows, elevating temps 2-3°C above the late-March climatological average of 16-17°C, per AEMET historical data. Differentiating factors include variable afternoon cloud cover from Atlantic moisture, which could suppress maxima by 1°C toward 18°C, versus clearer skies boosting to 20-21°C; recent model runs show slight warming trends, but diurnal boundary layer evolution adds volatility, keeping lower outcomes viable if northerlies strengthen. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z updates for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Madrid on March 23?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 23?
17°C 28%
19°C 26%
18°C 24%
20°C 21%
14°C or below
2%
15°C
8%
16°C
13%
17°C
19%
18°C
24%
19°C
26%
20°C
21%
21°C
16%
22°C
12%
23°C
8%
24°C or higher
7%
17°C 28%
19°C 26%
18°C 24%
20°C 21%
14°C or below
2%
15°C
8%
16°C
13%
17°C
19%
18°C
24%
19°C
26%
20°C
21%
21°C
16%
22°C
12%
23°C
8%
24°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Madrid's March 23 high temperature clustering around 18-20°C, fueling tight trader odds favoring 19°C at 26% implied probability amid mild uncertainty in peak heating. A persistent high-pressure ridge over Iberia is channeling warmer southerly flows, elevating temps 2-3°C above the late-March climatological average of 16-17°C, per AEMET historical data. Differentiating factors include variable afternoon cloud cover from Atlantic moisture, which could suppress maxima by 1°C toward 18°C, versus clearer skies boosting to 20-21°C; recent model runs show slight warming trends, but diurnal boundary layer evolution adds volatility, keeping lower outcomes viable if northerlies strengthen. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z updates for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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