Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 14°C (35%) as Madrid's highest temperature on March 20, propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering at 14-15°C under a stable northerly flow suppressing highs. AEMET's short-range guidance aligns, projecting scattered low clouds and light winds to limit diurnal peaks, differentiating it from 15°C (25.5%) and 16°C (22.5%) outcomes reliant on minor ridging or clearer skies. Historical March averages hover at 15.5°C, but current 500hPa troughing adds 1-2°C downside risk versus baseline, with model spread capturing urban heat island effects at Barajas station amid early spring variability.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Madrid am 20. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Madrid am 20. März?
14°C 38%
15°C 25%
16°C 22%
13°C 16.4%
$35,195 Vol.
$35,195 Vol.
12°C oder weniger
2%
13°C
16%
14°C
38%
15°C
25%
16°C
22%
17°C
4%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C oder höher
<1%
14°C 38%
15°C 25%
16°C 22%
13°C 16.4%
$35,195 Vol.
$35,195 Vol.
12°C oder weniger
2%
13°C
16%
14°C
38%
15°C
25%
16°C
22%
17°C
4%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C oder höher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 2:27 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 14°C (35%) as Madrid's highest temperature on March 20, propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering at 14-15°C under a stable northerly flow suppressing highs. AEMET's short-range guidance aligns, projecting scattered low clouds and light winds to limit diurnal peaks, differentiating it from 15°C (25.5%) and 16°C (22.5%) outcomes reliant on minor ridging or clearer skies. Historical March averages hover at 15.5°C, but current 500hPa troughing adds 1-2°C downside risk versus baseline, with model spread capturing urban heat island effects at Barajas station amid early spring variability.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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