Trader sentiment for Wuhan's March 20 high temperature remains evenly distributed across 12–18°C at roughly 40.5% implied probabilities each, reflecting substantial uncertainty in ensemble weather models amid a transitional spring pattern. China Meteorological Administration forecasts center around 14–16°C, but divergent outputs from ECMWF and GFS show spreads of 3–5°C, driven by an approaching low-pressure system that could suppress highs below 14°C through increased cloud cover and northerly winds, while ridging aloft favors 16°C+ under clearer skies. Historical March 20 data averages 15°C with a 4°C standard deviation, amplifying model disagreement; traders eye upcoming 12Z updates for catalysts shifting odds toward specific thresholds like 14°C or 16°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Wuhan am 20. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Wuhan am 20. März?
12°C 41%
13°C 41%
14°C 41%
15°C 41%
8°C oder darunter
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
41%
13°C
41%
14°C
41%
15°C
41%
16°C
41%
17°C
41%
18°C oder höher
41%
12°C 41%
13°C 41%
14°C 41%
15°C 41%
8°C oder darunter
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
41%
13°C
41%
14°C
41%
15°C
41%
16°C
41%
17°C
41%
18°C oder höher
41%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 6:52 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Wuhan's March 20 high temperature remains evenly distributed across 12–18°C at roughly 40.5% implied probabilities each, reflecting substantial uncertainty in ensemble weather models amid a transitional spring pattern. China Meteorological Administration forecasts center around 14–16°C, but divergent outputs from ECMWF and GFS show spreads of 3–5°C, driven by an approaching low-pressure system that could suppress highs below 14°C through increased cloud cover and northerly winds, while ridging aloft favors 16°C+ under clearer skies. Historical March 20 data averages 15°C with a 4°C standard deviation, amplifying model disagreement; traders eye upcoming 12Z updates for catalysts shifting odds toward specific thresholds like 14°C or 16°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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