Trader consensus favors a high of 63°F or below in Chicago on March 22 at 54% implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast predicting a maximum near 62°F under partly cloudy skies with northwest winds ushering cooler mid-level air from a lingering upper trough. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF 12z runs align closely, with 50th-percentile outputs in the 60-63°F range amid post-frontal stabilization following a weak cold front on March 20. Historical March 22 averages hover around 48°F, but this year's mild winter baseline supports the modest warmth; recent HRRR updates trimmed earlier 65°F projections, reinforcing lower odds for 64°F+ outcomes as diurnal heating remains capped.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Chicago on March 22?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 22?
63°F or below 55%
64-65°F 25.1%
66-67°F 7.3%
68-69°F 2.7%
$56,464 Vol.
$56,464 Vol.
63°F or below
55%
64-65°F
25%
66-67°F
7%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82°F or higher
1%
63°F or below 55%
64-65°F 25.1%
66-67°F 7.3%
68-69°F 2.7%
$56,464 Vol.
$56,464 Vol.
63°F or below
55%
64-65°F
25%
66-67°F
7%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a high of 63°F or below in Chicago on March 22 at 54% implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast predicting a maximum near 62°F under partly cloudy skies with northwest winds ushering cooler mid-level air from a lingering upper trough. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF 12z runs align closely, with 50th-percentile outputs in the 60-63°F range amid post-frontal stabilization following a weak cold front on March 20. Historical March 22 averages hover around 48°F, but this year's mild winter baseline supports the modest warmth; recent HRRR updates trimmed earlier 65°F projections, reinforcing lower odds for 64°F+ outcomes as diurnal heating remains capped.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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