Trader uncertainty dominates Polymarket odds for Houston's March 24 high temperature, with every 2°F bin from 75°F or below to 94°F+ trading at identical 25.5% implied probabilities, reflecting a market still digesting initial forecasts amid spring volatility. National Weather Service guidance points to a baseline high near 80-82°F under partly sunny skies with light southerly winds, but ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF diverge widely—some runs amplify a building upper-ridge for 85-90°F peaks via enhanced boundary-layer mixing and Gulf moisture influx, while others hint at weak cold-front risks capping at 75°F. Historical March 24 averages hover at 75°F (with records to 91°F), but recent warm anomalies and upcoming 12Z model updates will likely sharpen differentiation as traders weigh jet stream positioning against soil moisture from prior rains.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Houston on March 24?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 24?
78-79°F 26%
80-81°F 26%
82-83°F 26%
76-77°F 26%
75°F or below
8%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
26%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
26%
84-85°F
26%
86-87°F
26%
88-89°F
26%
90-91°F
26%
92-93°F
26%
94°F or higher
8%
78-79°F 26%
80-81°F 26%
82-83°F 26%
76-77°F 26%
75°F or below
8%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
26%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
26%
84-85°F
26%
86-87°F
26%
88-89°F
26%
90-91°F
26%
92-93°F
26%
94°F or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 6:14 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader uncertainty dominates Polymarket odds for Houston's March 24 high temperature, with every 2°F bin from 75°F or below to 94°F+ trading at identical 25.5% implied probabilities, reflecting a market still digesting initial forecasts amid spring volatility. National Weather Service guidance points to a baseline high near 80-82°F under partly sunny skies with light southerly winds, but ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF diverge widely—some runs amplify a building upper-ridge for 85-90°F peaks via enhanced boundary-layer mixing and Gulf moisture influx, while others hint at weak cold-front risks capping at 75°F. Historical March 24 averages hover at 75°F (with records to 91°F), but recent warm anomalies and upcoming 12Z model updates will likely sharpen differentiation as traders weigh jet stream positioning against soil moisture from prior rains.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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