Latest ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS show a tight spread in forecasted highs for Madrid on March 24, with ECMWF's warmer ridge scenario implying 22-24°C (boosting 23°C+ odds to 25.5%) clashing against GFS's cooler Atlantic inflow projecting 16-18°C (elevating 17°C to 24.5%). AEMET's official guidance centers around 19-20°C under partly cloudy skies, aligning with March climatology averaging 17°C highs but amplified by recent mild anomalies. Trader sentiment reflects this model divergence and short-range uncertainty, as small shifts in upper-air patterns could swing outcomes by 3-5°C before resolution at Madrid-Barajas Airport. Historical volatility remains low, favoring mid-teens to low-20s.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Madrid on March 24?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 24?
17°C 25%
19°C 19%
20°C 19%
18°C 18%
13°C or below
8%
14°C
9%
15°C
16%
16°C
17%
17°C
25%
18°C
18%
19°C
19%
20°C
19%
21°C
17%
22°C
17%
23°C or higher
17%
17°C 25%
19°C 19%
20°C 19%
18°C 18%
13°C or below
8%
14°C
9%
15°C
16%
16°C
17%
17°C
25%
18°C
18%
19°C
19%
20°C
19%
21°C
17%
22°C
17%
23°C or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS show a tight spread in forecasted highs for Madrid on March 24, with ECMWF's warmer ridge scenario implying 22-24°C (boosting 23°C+ odds to 25.5%) clashing against GFS's cooler Atlantic inflow projecting 16-18°C (elevating 17°C to 24.5%). AEMET's official guidance centers around 19-20°C under partly cloudy skies, aligning with March climatology averaging 17°C highs but amplified by recent mild anomalies. Trader sentiment reflects this model divergence and short-range uncertainty, as small shifts in upper-air patterns could swing outcomes by 3-5°C before resolution at Madrid-Barajas Airport. Historical volatility remains low, favoring mid-teens to low-20s.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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