Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Miami high of 82-83°F (30%) as the most likely outcome for March 24, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles projecting peaks in the low-to-mid 80s amid a warming air mass and elevated Atlantic sea surface temperatures near 78°F boosting daytime heating. Closely trailing options at 80-81°F (24%) and 84-85°F (23.5%) reflect model spread uncertainties, particularly sea breeze timing and afternoon cloudiness, which could cap peaks or allow convective showers to enhance instability. Historical March 24 highs average 79°F, but recent ridging aloft favors above-normal warmth, with NWS forecast updates tomorrow potentially sharpening odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Miami on March 24?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 24?
82-83°F 29%
84-85°F 24%
80-81°F 23%
78-79°F 13%
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
24%
82-83°F
29%
84-85°F
24%
86-87°F
11%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
2%
92°F or higher
2%
82-83°F 29%
84-85°F 24%
80-81°F 23%
78-79°F 13%
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
24%
82-83°F
29%
84-85°F
24%
86-87°F
11%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
2%
92°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Miami high of 82-83°F (30%) as the most likely outcome for March 24, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles projecting peaks in the low-to-mid 80s amid a warming air mass and elevated Atlantic sea surface temperatures near 78°F boosting daytime heating. Closely trailing options at 80-81°F (24%) and 84-85°F (23.5%) reflect model spread uncertainties, particularly sea breeze timing and afternoon cloudiness, which could cap peaks or allow convective showers to enhance instability. Historical March 24 highs average 79°F, but recent ridging aloft favors above-normal warmth, with NWS forecast updates tomorrow potentially sharpening odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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