Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Shanghai high temperature of 18°C (28%) or 19°C (26.5%) on March 22, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs projecting mild southerly winds advecting warmer continental air amid a high-pressure ridge. These closely matched odds reflect model spread of just 1-2°C, with 17°C (19%) viable if increased cloud cover reduces insolation, while 20°C (13.2%) hinges on fuller sunshine and stronger boundary-layer mixing. Historical March 22 highs average 14°C but show ±4°C variability; low precipitation odds (<20%) from official CMA forecasts further bolster warmer outcomes, though diurnal fluctuations introduce final-hour uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 22?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 22?
18°C 28%
19°C 27%
17°C 19%
20°C 13.6%
$67,152 Vol.
$67,152 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
8%
17°C
19%
18°C
28%
19°C
27%
20°C
14%
21°C or higher
5%
18°C 28%
19°C 27%
17°C 19%
20°C 13.6%
$67,152 Vol.
$67,152 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
8%
17°C
19%
18°C
28%
19°C
27%
20°C
14%
21°C or higher
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Shanghai high temperature of 18°C (28%) or 19°C (26.5%) on March 22, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs projecting mild southerly winds advecting warmer continental air amid a high-pressure ridge. These closely matched odds reflect model spread of just 1-2°C, with 17°C (19%) viable if increased cloud cover reduces insolation, while 20°C (13.2%) hinges on fuller sunshine and stronger boundary-layer mixing. Historical March 22 highs average 14°C but show ±4°C variability; low precipitation odds (<20%) from official CMA forecasts further bolster warmer outcomes, though diurnal fluctuations introduce final-hour uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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