The tight race between 42-43°F (26.5%) and 44-45°F (23%) reflects ensemble forecast consensus from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models, projecting Chicago's high near 43-44°F amid a weak mid-level trough bringing cool Canadian air. Differentiating factors include model spread from variable low-level cloud cover and light southerly winds potentially boosting mixing by 1-2°F in the 44-45°F bin, versus partial clearing favoring the cooler outcome. Recent 00Z runs nudged slightly warmer after yesterday's cooler bias correction, aligning with climatological March 23 averages around 44°F, though uncertainty persists ahead of 12Z updates and any frontal timing shifts. Trader sentiment hinges on these sub-degree model divergences.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Chicago am 23. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Chicago am 23. März?
42-43°F 30%
44-45°F 23%
48-49°F 11.9%
46-47°F 10.7%
35°F oder weniger
1%
36-37°F
3%
38-39°F
2%
40-41°F
7%
42-43°F
27%
44-45°F
23%
46-47°F
11%
48-49°F
12%
50-51°F
8%
52-53°F
3%
54°F oder höher
1%
42-43°F 30%
44-45°F 23%
48-49°F 11.9%
46-47°F 10.7%
35°F oder weniger
1%
36-37°F
3%
38-39°F
2%
40-41°F
7%
42-43°F
27%
44-45°F
23%
46-47°F
11%
48-49°F
12%
50-51°F
8%
52-53°F
3%
54°F oder höher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight race between 42-43°F (26.5%) and 44-45°F (23%) reflects ensemble forecast consensus from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models, projecting Chicago's high near 43-44°F amid a weak mid-level trough bringing cool Canadian air. Differentiating factors include model spread from variable low-level cloud cover and light southerly winds potentially boosting mixing by 1-2°F in the 44-45°F bin, versus partial clearing favoring the cooler outcome. Recent 00Z runs nudged slightly warmer after yesterday's cooler bias correction, aligning with climatological March 23 averages around 44°F, though uncertainty persists ahead of 12Z updates and any frontal timing shifts. Trader sentiment hinges on these sub-degree model divergences.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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