Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 24°C in Shanghai on May 2, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's key stations, including Xujiahui Observatory, which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and brief sprinkles that capped solar heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from CMA updates, GFS, and ECMWF ensembles projecting 23-25°C peaks during early May's transitional monsoon conditions, where historical averages hover around 23°C influenced by East China Sea breezes and urban heat island effects. Realistic challenges are minimal post-resolution—only an unprecedented data revision from authoritative measurements could shift it, though airport stations like Hongqiao reported slightly higher 25°C due to microclimate variances irrelevant to market criteria.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 2?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 2?
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$124,507 Vol.
$124,507 Vol.
2. Mai 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$124,507 Vol.
$124,507 Vol.
2. Mai 2026
18°C or below
$3,438 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,701 Vol.
No
20°C
$6,091 Vol.
No
21°C
$10,672 Vol.
No
22°C
$13,060 Vol.
No
23°C
$24,636 Vol.
No
24°C
$19,535 Vol.
Yes
25°C
$17,201 Vol.
No
26°C
$12,693 Vol.
No
27°C
$7,312 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$8,169 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 24°C in Shanghai on May 2, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's key stations, including Xujiahui Observatory, which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and brief sprinkles that capped solar heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from CMA updates, GFS, and ECMWF ensembles projecting 23-25°C peaks during early May's transitional monsoon conditions, where historical averages hover around 23°C influenced by East China Sea breezes and urban heat island effects. Realistic challenges are minimal post-resolution—only an unprecedented data revision from authoritative measurements could shift it, though airport stations like Hongqiao reported slightly higher 25°C due to microclimate variances irrelevant to market criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 30, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
Volumen
$124,507Enddatum
2. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 30, 2026, 12:41 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 24°C in Shanghai on May 2, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's key stations, including Xujiahui Observatory, which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and brief sprinkles that capped solar heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from CMA updates, GFS, and ECMWF ensembles projecting 23-25°C peaks during early May's transitional monsoon conditions, where historical averages hover around 23°C influenced by East China Sea breezes and urban heat island effects. Realistic challenges are minimal post-resolution—only an unprecedented data revision from authoritative measurements could shift it, though airport stations like Hongqiao reported slightly higher 25°C due to microclimate variances irrelevant to market criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$124,507Enddatum
2. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 30, 2026, 12:41 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 24°C in Shanghai on May 2, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's key stations, including Xujiahui Observatory, which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and brief sprinkles that capped solar heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from CMA updates, GFS, and ECMWF ensembles projecting 23-25°C peaks during early May's transitional monsoon conditions, where historical averages hover around 23°C influenced by East China Sea breezes and urban heat island effects. Realistic challenges are minimal post-resolution—only an unprecedented data revision from authoritative measurements could shift it, though airport stations like Hongqiao reported slightly higher 25°C due to microclimate variances irrelevant to market criteria.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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