Recent forecasts from global and regional models, including GFS and Japan Meteorological Agency guidance, indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 14 centered near 24°C under southerly flow, elevated dew points near 23°C, and partly cloudy overnight conditions that limit radiational cooling. This setup follows a period of above-average warmth and humidity, with no significant cold advection expected before the overnight period. Trader consensus reflected in the 39.5% implied probability for 24°C and combined 49.5% for the 23–25°C range aligns with model consensus and historical September minimum variability of roughly ±2°C around the 19°C climatological baseline. Updated model runs and any late-day observational shifts from surface stations will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Tokio am 14. September?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Tokio am 14. September?
24°C 40%
23°C 29%
25°C 17%
22°C 12%
NEU
NEU
14. Sep. 2026
20°C oder darunter
3%
21°C
10%
22°C
12%
23°C
29%
24°C
40%
25°C
17%
26°C
3%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C oder höher
<1%
24°C 40%
23°C 29%
25°C 17%
22°C 12%
NEU
NEU
14. Sep. 2026
20°C oder darunter
$844 Vol.
3%
21°C
$267 Vol.
10%
22°C
$210 Vol.
12%
23°C
$530 Vol.
29%
24°C
$1,407 Vol.
40%
25°C
$1,118 Vol.
17%
26°C
$0 Vol.
3%
27°C
$97 Vol.
1%
28°C
$97 Vol.
1%
29°C
$44 Vol.
<1%
30°C oder höher
$225 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global and regional models, including GFS and Japan Meteorological Agency guidance, indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 14 centered near 24°C under southerly flow, elevated dew points near 23°C, and partly cloudy overnight conditions that limit radiational cooling. This setup follows a period of above-average warmth and humidity, with no significant cold advection expected before the overnight period. Trader consensus reflected in the 39.5% implied probability for 24°C and combined 49.5% for the 23–25°C range aligns with model consensus and historical September minimum variability of roughly ±2°C around the 19°C climatological baseline. Updated model runs and any late-day observational shifts from surface stations will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$4,661Enddatum
14. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global and regional models, including GFS and Japan Meteorological Agency guidance, indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 14 centered near 24°C under southerly flow, elevated dew points near 23°C, and partly cloudy overnight conditions that limit radiational cooling. This setup follows a period of above-average warmth and humidity, with no significant cold advection expected before the overnight period. Trader consensus reflected in the 39.5% implied probability for 24°C and combined 49.5% for the 23–25°C range aligns with model consensus and historical September minimum variability of roughly ±2°C around the 19°C climatological baseline. Updated model runs and any late-day observational shifts from surface stations will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$4,661Enddatum
14. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from global and regional models, including GFS and Japan Meteorological Agency guidance, indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 14 centered near 24°C under southerly flow, elevated dew points near 23°C, and partly cloudy overnight conditions that limit radiational cooling. This setup follows a period of above-average warmth and humidity, with no significant cold advection expected before the overnight period. Trader consensus reflected in the 39.5% implied probability for 24°C and combined 49.5% for the 23–25°C range aligns with model consensus and historical September minimum variability of roughly ±2°C around the 19°C climatological baseline. Updated model runs and any late-day observational shifts from surface stations will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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