Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 6–8°C for Wellington’s lowest temperature on September 21 because current ensemble forecasts show only modest spread in overnight radiative cooling under variable spring conditions. A weak high-pressure ridge is expected to limit cloud cover and allow some surface cooling, yet a strengthening southerly flow may advect cooler maritime air and increase mixing, preventing deeper drops. Historical September minima in Wellington average near 7°C, with clear, calm nights occasionally reaching 4–5°C when katabatic drainage occurs. Model disagreement on exact wind timing and dew-point depression keeps implied probabilities balanced across the 5–9°C range, with lower odds assigned to extremes given the absence of strong frontal systems in the latest guidance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Wellington am 21. September?
6°C 38%
5°C 35%
9°C 35%
10°C 35%
3°C oder weniger
2%
4°C
2%
5°C
35%
6°C
38%
7°C
29%
8°C
27%
9°C
35%
10°C
35%
11°C
14%
12°C
2%
13°C oder höher
2%
6°C 38%
5°C 35%
9°C 35%
10°C 35%
3°C oder weniger
2%
4°C
2%
5°C
35%
6°C
38%
7°C
29%
8°C
27%
9°C
35%
10°C
35%
11°C
14%
12°C
2%
13°C oder höher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 6–8°C for Wellington’s lowest temperature on September 21 because current ensemble forecasts show only modest spread in overnight radiative cooling under variable spring conditions. A weak high-pressure ridge is expected to limit cloud cover and allow some surface cooling, yet a strengthening southerly flow may advect cooler maritime air and increase mixing, preventing deeper drops. Historical September minima in Wellington average near 7°C, with clear, calm nights occasionally reaching 4–5°C when katabatic drainage occurs. Model disagreement on exact wind timing and dew-point depression keeps implied probabilities balanced across the 5–9°C range, with lower odds assigned to extremes given the absence of strong frontal systems in the latest guidance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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