**Traders assign an 82% probability to “No” on Maduro facing conviction on all counts in the U.S. federal narco-terrorism and drug-trafficking case because the matter remains at an early pretrial stage with multiple procedural barriers ahead.** The Southern District of New York indictment charges Maduro with four felony counts—narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and related weapons offenses—stemming from allegations spanning more than two decades. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, pleaded not guilty after their January 2026 capture in a U.S. military operation and have remained in federal custody in Brooklyn. A July 2026 status conference set a June 1, 2027 trial date, with the first round of defense motions—focused on sovereign immunity and jurisdictional challenges—due by early September 2026 and oral arguments scheduled for November 17. Prosecutors must also navigate classified-evidence procedures under the Classified Information Procedures Act. These steps, combined with the extended timeline to resolution by the end of 2027, create substantial scope for dismissal, plea negotiations, partial verdicts, or other outcomes short of convictions on every count. The current trader consensus therefore reflects the uncertainty inherent in these unresolved legal and procedural hurdles rather than any assessment of the underlying allegations.