New York’s 20th congressional district maintains a solid Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent performance in recent presidential and statewide contests. Incumbent Paul Tonko, first elected in 2009, faces limited opposition after advancing unopposed through the canceled Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Ralph Ambrosio has not mounted a competitive challenge in campaign filings or endorsements. This structural advantage and lack of recent developments that could shift voter coalitions underpin the 92% Democratic probability reflected in trader consensus. A national political realignment, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or significant polling movement ahead of the November 2026 general election would be required to meaningfully alter the current positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNY-20 Wahlsieger
NY-20 Wahlsieger
$26,910 Vol.
$26,910 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
92%
Republikanische Partei
7%
$26,910 Vol.
$26,910 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$14,062 Vol.
92%
Republikanische Partei
$12,848 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 20th congressional district maintains a solid Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent performance in recent presidential and statewide contests. Incumbent Paul Tonko, first elected in 2009, faces limited opposition after advancing unopposed through the canceled Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Ralph Ambrosio has not mounted a competitive challenge in campaign filings or endorsements. This structural advantage and lack of recent developments that could shift voter coalitions underpin the 92% Democratic probability reflected in trader consensus. A national political realignment, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or significant polling movement ahead of the November 2026 general election would be required to meaningfully alter the current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$26,910Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 20th congressional district maintains a solid Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent performance in recent presidential and statewide contests. Incumbent Paul Tonko, first elected in 2009, faces limited opposition after advancing unopposed through the canceled Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Ralph Ambrosio has not mounted a competitive challenge in campaign filings or endorsements. This structural advantage and lack of recent developments that could shift voter coalitions underpin the 92% Democratic probability reflected in trader consensus. A national political realignment, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or significant polling movement ahead of the November 2026 general election would be required to meaningfully alter the current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$26,910Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 20th congressional district maintains a solid Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent performance in recent presidential and statewide contests. Incumbent Paul Tonko, first elected in 2009, faces limited opposition after advancing unopposed through the canceled Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Ralph Ambrosio has not mounted a competitive challenge in campaign filings or endorsements. This structural advantage and lack of recent developments that could shift voter coalitions underpin the 92% Democratic probability reflected in trader consensus. A national political realignment, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or significant polling movement ahead of the November 2026 general election would be required to meaningfully alter the current positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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