Recent national polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 7- to 12-point generic ballot advantage, driven by low presidential approval, inflation concerns, and the ongoing Iran conflict. Forecasters including Nate Silver’s model, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and the Cook Political Report have shifted multiple competitive districts toward Democrats in recent weeks, projecting Republican totals near or below 200 seats. This environment explains why Polymarket traders assign the highest probabilities to ranges below 200 Republican seats. The spread across several bins reflects uncertainty over polling error, redistricting effects, turnout differentials, and the final seven weeks of campaigning. Late economic data releases, candidate debates, or unexpected developments in battleground districts could narrow or widen the distribution before November 3.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUnter 190 25%
195-199 20%
200-204 13.7%
205–209 12.3%
$298,471 Vol.
$298,471 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Unter 190
25%
190-194
12%
195-199
20%
200-204
14%
205–209
12%
210-214
10%
215-219
7%
220-224
4%
225-229
3%
230+
3%
Unter 190 25%
195-199 20%
200-204 13.7%
205–209 12.3%
$298,471 Vol.
$298,471 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Unter 190
$37,189 Vol.
25%
190-194
$15,171 Vol.
12%
195-199
$33,814 Vol.
20%
200-204
$26,260 Vol.
14%
205–209
$41,381 Vol.
12%
210-214
$16,236 Vol.
10%
215-219
$12,078 Vol.
7%
220-224
$59,750 Vol.
4%
225-229
$25,066 Vol.
3%
230+
$31,525 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent national polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 7- to 12-point generic ballot advantage, driven by low presidential approval, inflation concerns, and the ongoing Iran conflict. Forecasters including Nate Silver’s model, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and the Cook Political Report have shifted multiple competitive districts toward Democrats in recent weeks, projecting Republican totals near or below 200 seats. This environment explains why Polymarket traders assign the highest probabilities to ranges below 200 Republican seats. The spread across several bins reflects uncertainty over polling error, redistricting effects, turnout differentials, and the final seven weeks of campaigning. Late economic data releases, candidate debates, or unexpected developments in battleground districts could narrow or widen the distribution before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Volumen
$298,471Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent national polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 7- to 12-point generic ballot advantage, driven by low presidential approval, inflation concerns, and the ongoing Iran conflict. Forecasters including Nate Silver’s model, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and the Cook Political Report have shifted multiple competitive districts toward Democrats in recent weeks, projecting Republican totals near or below 200 seats. This environment explains why Polymarket traders assign the highest probabilities to ranges below 200 Republican seats. The spread across several bins reflects uncertainty over polling error, redistricting effects, turnout differentials, and the final seven weeks of campaigning. Late economic data releases, candidate debates, or unexpected developments in battleground districts could narrow or widen the distribution before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$298,471Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Recent national polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 7- to 12-point generic ballot advantage, driven by low presidential approval, inflation concerns, and the ongoing Iran conflict. Forecasters including Nate Silver’s model, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and the Cook Political Report have shifted multiple competitive districts toward Democrats in recent weeks, projecting Republican totals near or below 200 seats. This environment explains why Polymarket traders assign the highest probabilities to ranges below 200 Republican seats. The spread across several bins reflects uncertainty over polling error, redistricting effects, turnout differentials, and the final seven weeks of campaigning. Late economic data releases, candidate debates, or unexpected developments in battleground districts could narrow or widen the distribution before November 3.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird die Republikanische Partei nach den Zwischenwahlen 2026 47 oder weniger Senatssitze halten?
33%
Ja
Werden die Republikaner nach den Zwischenwahlen 2026 47–49 Senatssitze und 193–207 Sitze im Repräsentantenhaus halten?
30%
Ja
Wird die Demokratische Partei nach den Zwischenwahlen 2026 das Repräsentantenhaus kontrollieren?
89%
Ja
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen