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icon for Union Centriste Seat Count after French Senate Election?
Politik·Französische Senatswahlen

Union Centriste Seat Count after French Senate Election?

icon for Union Centriste Seat Count after French Senate Election?
Politik·Französische Senatswahlen

Union Centriste Seat Count after French Senate Election?

56-58 52%

62-64 17.0%

53-55 15%

59-61 14%

Polymarket
NEU

56-58 52%

62-64 17.0%

53-55 15%

59-61 14%

Polymarket
NEU

<53

$142 Vol.

4%

53-55

$279 Vol.

15%

56-58

$1,126 Vol.

45%

59-61

$142 Vol.

14%

62-64

$187 Vol.

17%

65-67

$163 Vol.

7%

68+

$120 Vol.

1%

The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST. This market will resolve according to the number of French Senate seats held by the Groupe Union Centriste as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST. The seat count will be the group's total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés). A group will qualify as the Groupe Union Centriste if it satisfies at least one of the following: - Its official name includes "Union Centriste" or a clear variant thereof; - Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the group; or - It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the Groupe Union Centriste, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If the group merges with one or more other groups, this market will resolve according to the total membership of the merged group, provided the merged group meets at least one of the criteria above. If no group qualifies, or group composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting. The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.The 2026 French Senate election on September 27 renews 178 seats via indirect vote by local electoral colleges, with Union Centriste currently holding 59 seats and 30 of those at stake. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 56-61 seats because the group's performance remains anchored within the stable centre-right bloc alongside Les Républicains, where recent municipal and departmental results have produced only modest shifts in the grands électeurs. The UC leadership has publicly targeted overall stability, citing offsetting gains and losses. With no major national political realignments or disruptive local contests in the past month, the market reflects limited expected volatility in the centre-right vote share ahead of the indirect ballot.

The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST.

This market will resolve according to the number of French Senate seats held by the Groupe Union Centriste as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST.

The seat count will be the group's total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés).

A group will qualify as the Groupe Union Centriste if it satisfies at least one of the following:
- Its official name includes "Union Centriste" or a clear variant thereof;
- Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the group; or
- It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the Groupe Union Centriste, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.

A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If the group merges with one or more other groups, this market will resolve according to the total membership of the merged group, provided the merged group meets at least one of the criteria above.

If no group qualifies, or group composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market.

The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,159
Enddatum
12. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 19, 2026, 3:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST. This market will resolve according to the number of French Senate seats held by the Groupe Union Centriste as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST. The seat count will be the group's total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés). A group will qualify as the Groupe Union Centriste if it satisfies at least one of the following: - Its official name includes "Union Centriste" or a clear variant thereof; - Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the group; or - It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the Groupe Union Centriste, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If the group merges with one or more other groups, this market will resolve according to the total membership of the merged group, provided the merged group meets at least one of the criteria above. If no group qualifies, or group composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting. The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST. This market will resolve according to the number of French Senate seats held by the Groupe Union Centriste as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST. The seat count will be the group's total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés). A group will qualify as the Groupe Union Centriste if it satisfies at least one of the following: - Its official name includes "Union Centriste" or a clear variant thereof; - Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the group; or - It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the Groupe Union Centriste, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If the group merges with one or more other groups, this market will resolve according to the total membership of the merged group, provided the merged group meets at least one of the criteria above. If no group qualifies, or group composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting. The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.The 2026 French Senate election on September 27 renews 178 seats via indirect vote by local electoral colleges, with Union Centriste currently holding 59 seats and 30 of those at stake. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 56-61 seats because the group's performance remains anchored within the stable centre-right bloc alongside Les Républicains, where recent municipal and departmental results have produced only modest shifts in the grands électeurs. The UC leadership has publicly targeted overall stability, citing offsetting gains and losses. With no major national political realignments or disruptive local contests in the past month, the market reflects limited expected volatility in the centre-right vote share ahead of the indirect ballot.

The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST.

This market will resolve according to the number of French Senate seats held by the Groupe Union Centriste as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST.

The seat count will be the group's total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés).

A group will qualify as the Groupe Union Centriste if it satisfies at least one of the following:
- Its official name includes "Union Centriste" or a clear variant thereof;
- Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the group; or
- It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the Groupe Union Centriste, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.

A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If the group merges with one or more other groups, this market will resolve according to the total membership of the merged group, provided the merged group meets at least one of the criteria above.

If no group qualifies, or group composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market.

The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,159
Enddatum
12. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 19, 2026, 3:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST. This market will resolve according to the number of French Senate seats held by the Groupe Union Centriste as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST. The seat count will be the group's total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés). A group will qualify as the Groupe Union Centriste if it satisfies at least one of the following: - Its official name includes "Union Centriste" or a clear variant thereof; - Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the group; or - It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the Groupe Union Centriste, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If the group merges with one or more other groups, this market will resolve according to the total membership of the merged group, provided the merged group meets at least one of the criteria above. If no group qualifies, or group composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting. The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Verwandte

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Will Les Républicains hold 125-128 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?

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icon for Werden Les Républicains nach der französischen Senatswahl die meisten Sitze haben?

Werden Les Républicains nach der französischen Senatswahl die meisten Sitze haben?

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Vorsicht bei externen Links.

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