Recent U.S. trade data and policy shifts position the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges as the leading trader consensus for the 2026 annual goods-and-services deficit. The 2025 total reached 901.5 billion, with the trailing twelve-month figure near 776 billion through February 2026 and monthly readings around 60 billion in early 2026. Higher tariffs implemented in 2025 have slowed import growth more than exports, while supply-chain adjustments, a depreciating dollar, and moderate global demand support continued narrowing relative to prior peaks. Congressional Budget Office projections anticipate exports outpacing imports through the decade under current policy, though near-term economic expansion and any further tariff effects could sustain deficits near recent levels. These dynamics explain the market’s concentration in the 800–1,000 billion bands.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$21,139 Vol.
$21,139 Vol.
28. Feb. 2027
<500 Mrd.
5%
500–600 Mrd.
6%
600–700 Mrd.
8%
700–800 Mrd.
9%
800–900 Mrd.
44%
900 Mrd.–1 Bio.
29%
1 Bio.–1,1 Bio.
5%
1,1+ Billionen
4%
$21,139 Vol.
$21,139 Vol.
28. Feb. 2027
<500 Mrd.
$16,691 Vol.
5%
500–600 Mrd.
$413 Vol.
6%
600–700 Mrd.
$505 Vol.
8%
700–800 Mrd.
$456 Vol.
9%
800–900 Mrd.
$1,008 Vol.
44%
900 Mrd.–1 Bio.
$984 Vol.
29%
1 Bio.–1,1 Bio.
$447 Vol.
5%
1,1+ Billionen
$635 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data and policy shifts position the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges as the leading trader consensus for the 2026 annual goods-and-services deficit. The 2025 total reached 901.5 billion, with the trailing twelve-month figure near 776 billion through February 2026 and monthly readings around 60 billion in early 2026. Higher tariffs implemented in 2025 have slowed import growth more than exports, while supply-chain adjustments, a depreciating dollar, and moderate global demand support continued narrowing relative to prior peaks. Congressional Budget Office projections anticipate exports outpacing imports through the decade under current policy, though near-term economic expansion and any further tariff effects could sustain deficits near recent levels. These dynamics explain the market’s concentration in the 800–1,000 billion bands.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$21,139Enddatum
28. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data and policy shifts position the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges as the leading trader consensus for the 2026 annual goods-and-services deficit. The 2025 total reached 901.5 billion, with the trailing twelve-month figure near 776 billion through February 2026 and monthly readings around 60 billion in early 2026. Higher tariffs implemented in 2025 have slowed import growth more than exports, while supply-chain adjustments, a depreciating dollar, and moderate global demand support continued narrowing relative to prior peaks. Congressional Budget Office projections anticipate exports outpacing imports through the decade under current policy, though near-term economic expansion and any further tariff effects could sustain deficits near recent levels. These dynamics explain the market’s concentration in the 800–1,000 billion bands.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volumen
$21,139Enddatum
28. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade data and policy shifts position the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges as the leading trader consensus for the 2026 annual goods-and-services deficit. The 2025 total reached 901.5 billion, with the trailing twelve-month figure near 776 billion through February 2026 and monthly readings around 60 billion in early 2026. Higher tariffs implemented in 2025 have slowed import growth more than exports, while supply-chain adjustments, a depreciating dollar, and moderate global demand support continued narrowing relative to prior peaks. Congressional Budget Office projections anticipate exports outpacing imports through the decade under current policy, though near-term economic expansion and any further tariff effects could sustain deficits near recent levels. These dynamics explain the market’s concentration in the 800–1,000 billion bands.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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