Traders assign a 96% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026 primarily due to the absence of visible large-scale amphibious mobilizations, troop concentrations, or logistical surges in the Taiwan Strait over the past year, alongside normalized but non-escalatory PLA activities such as routine aircraft carrier transits and reduced ADIZ incursions in early 2026. Diplomatic signals, including April 2026 meetings between Chinese officials and Taiwanese opposition leaders emphasizing peaceful cross-strait development, have reinforced stability expectations, while economic costs and deterrence dynamics continue to weigh against near-term conflict. With only five months remaining, this trader consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing low immediate risk. Realistic shifts could still occur from an unforeseen cross-strait incident, accelerated PLA movements, or major changes in U.S. arms policy or regional commitments that alter Beijing's cost-benefit calculations.