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icon for Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?
Politics·Middle East

Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?

icon for Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?
Politics·Middle East

Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?

Ended: März 31

Ended: März 31

$1,166,132 Vol.

31. März 2026
Polymarket

$1,166,132 Vol.

Polymarket

February 28

$327,021 Vol.

No

March 31

$225,076 Vol.

No

April 30

$614,036 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran." General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war. Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war. The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz without resolving Tehran's nuclear program, heightening tensions amid a fragile ceasefire that began in early April following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes and a naval blockade. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faced intense Senate and House questioning this week on the conflict's costs, Pentagon budget, and compliance with the War Powers Resolution, as the 60-day clock for congressional authorization approaches its May 1 deadline. Trump, briefed today by CENTCOM on fresh military options, stated only he knows the status of secretive talks, leaving open the possibility of restarting operations while trader consensus reflects uncertainty over escalation amid surging oil prices and Iranian threats against U.S. assets.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."

General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.

Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.

The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,166,132
Enddatum
31. März 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 24, 2026, 3:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran." General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war. Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war. The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran." General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war. Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war. The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz without resolving Tehran's nuclear program, heightening tensions amid a fragile ceasefire that began in early April following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes and a naval blockade. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faced intense Senate and House questioning this week on the conflict's costs, Pentagon budget, and compliance with the War Powers Resolution, as the 60-day clock for congressional authorization approaches its May 1 deadline. Trump, briefed today by CENTCOM on fresh military options, stated only he knows the status of secretive talks, leaving open the possibility of restarting operations while trader consensus reflects uncertainty over escalation amid surging oil prices and Iranian threats against U.S. assets.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."

General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.

Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.

The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,166,132
Enddatum
31. März 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 24, 2026, 3:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran." General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war. Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war. The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 3 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „February 28" mit 0%, gefolgt von „March 31" mit 0%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 0¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 0% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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