Canada's Liberal government under Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a parliamentary majority in April 2026 through by-election victories and floor crossings following the 2025 election. This outcome eliminated immediate pressures for dissolution, aligning with the fixed election date of October 15, 2029, under the Canada Elections Act. No confidence votes, supply bill defeats, or other triggers have emerged in recent months, and polling indicates stable support without urgency for an early contest. Traders reflect this stability in assigning a 99.7% probability to no federal election call by June 30. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unforeseen parliamentary defeat or leadership change, though both remain remote given the current majority and timeline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$83,448 Vol.
$83,448 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$83,448 Vol.
$83,448 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Canada's Liberal government under Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a parliamentary majority in April 2026 through by-election victories and floor crossings following the 2025 election. This outcome eliminated immediate pressures for dissolution, aligning with the fixed election date of October 15, 2029, under the Canada Elections Act. No confidence votes, supply bill defeats, or other triggers have emerged in recent months, and polling indicates stable support without urgency for an early contest. Traders reflect this stability in assigning a 99.7% probability to no federal election call by June 30. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unforeseen parliamentary defeat or leadership change, though both remain remote given the current majority and timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ET
Volumen
$83,448Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Canada's Liberal government under Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a parliamentary majority in April 2026 through by-election victories and floor crossings following the 2025 election. This outcome eliminated immediate pressures for dissolution, aligning with the fixed election date of October 15, 2029, under the Canada Elections Act. No confidence votes, supply bill defeats, or other triggers have emerged in recent months, and polling indicates stable support without urgency for an early contest. Traders reflect this stability in assigning a 99.7% probability to no federal election call by June 30. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unforeseen parliamentary defeat or leadership change, though both remain remote given the current majority and timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$83,448Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada's Liberal government under Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a parliamentary majority in April 2026 through by-election victories and floor crossings following the 2025 election. This outcome eliminated immediate pressures for dissolution, aligning with the fixed election date of October 15, 2029, under the Canada Elections Act. No confidence votes, supply bill defeats, or other triggers have emerged in recent months, and polling indicates stable support without urgency for an early contest. Traders reflect this stability in assigning a 99.7% probability to no federal election call by June 30. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unforeseen parliamentary defeat or leadership change, though both remain remote given the current majority and timeline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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