Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois maintaining a narrow lead over the Quebec Liberal Party in a tightening three-way contest ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial vote, with the Coalition Avenir Québec gaining ground under new Premier Christine Fréchette following the departure of François Legault. Traders assign the PQ the highest probability due to its consistent strength among Francophone voters, a key demographic in seat distribution under the province's first-past-the-post system, while the PLQ benefits from solid non-Francophone support that could narrow the gap in urban ridings. The CAQ's modest recovery reflects the "Fréchette effect" in late-spring surveys but remains limited by prior declines in government popularity. Smaller parties trail far behind with negligible projected seat totals. These patterns align with trader consensus reflecting Quebec's divided electorate and historical patterns of volatile provincial outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones generales de Quebec
Ganador de las elecciones generales de Quebec
PQ 55%
PLQ 33%
CAQ 14%
PCQ <1%
$558,856 Vol.
$558,856 Vol.
5 oct 2026
PQ
55%
PLQ
33%
CAQ
14%
PCQ
<1%
PVQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PQ 55%
PLQ 33%
CAQ 14%
PCQ <1%
$558,856 Vol.
$558,856 Vol.
5 oct 2026
PQ
$57,376 Vol.
55%
PLQ
$60,661 Vol.
33%
CAQ
$67,926 Vol.
14%
PCQ
$171,102 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$129,574 Vol.
<1%
QS
$72,217 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois maintaining a narrow lead over the Quebec Liberal Party in a tightening three-way contest ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial vote, with the Coalition Avenir Québec gaining ground under new Premier Christine Fréchette following the departure of François Legault. Traders assign the PQ the highest probability due to its consistent strength among Francophone voters, a key demographic in seat distribution under the province's first-past-the-post system, while the PLQ benefits from solid non-Francophone support that could narrow the gap in urban ridings. The CAQ's modest recovery reflects the "Fréchette effect" in late-spring surveys but remains limited by prior declines in government popularity. Smaller parties trail far behind with negligible projected seat totals. These patterns align with trader consensus reflecting Quebec's divided electorate and historical patterns of volatile provincial outcomes.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercado abierto: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volumen
$558,856Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois maintaining a narrow lead over the Quebec Liberal Party in a tightening three-way contest ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial vote, with the Coalition Avenir Québec gaining ground under new Premier Christine Fréchette following the departure of François Legault. Traders assign the PQ the highest probability due to its consistent strength among Francophone voters, a key demographic in seat distribution under the province's first-past-the-post system, while the PLQ benefits from solid non-Francophone support that could narrow the gap in urban ridings. The CAQ's modest recovery reflects the "Fréchette effect" in late-spring surveys but remains limited by prior declines in government popularity. Smaller parties trail far behind with negligible projected seat totals. These patterns align with trader consensus reflecting Quebec's divided electorate and historical patterns of volatile provincial outcomes.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volumen
$558,856Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois maintaining a narrow lead over the Quebec Liberal Party in a tightening three-way contest ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial vote, with the Coalition Avenir Québec gaining ground under new Premier Christine Fréchette following the departure of François Legault. Traders assign the PQ the highest probability due to its consistent strength among Francophone voters, a key demographic in seat distribution under the province's first-past-the-post system, while the PLQ benefits from solid non-Francophone support that could narrow the gap in urban ridings. The CAQ's modest recovery reflects the "Fréchette effect" in late-spring surveys but remains limited by prior declines in government popularity. Smaller parties trail far behind with negligible projected seat totals. These patterns align with trader consensus reflecting Quebec's divided electorate and historical patterns of volatile provincial outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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