Liberals under Mark Carney secured victory in the April 2025 federal election with 169 seats and 43.8% of the popular vote against the Conservatives’ 144 seats and 41.3%, later converting their minority into a majority through by-election gains and floor crossings. National polling throughout 2026 has shown consistent Liberal leads of six to fourteen points, with support holding near 44-49% while Conservative intentions remain in the mid-30s. These results reversed earlier Conservative advantages and reflect sustained voter preference amid stable government approval ratings above 50%. With the next scheduled election years away and no major shifts evident in recent surveys, traders assign very low probability to a Conservative overtake in seat or poll positioning by year-end 2026. Late developments such as economic shocks, leadership changes, or unexpected scandals could still narrow the gap before the resolution window closes.