Recent polls show firm support for Alberta separation or advancing to a binding independence vote has fallen to 18-33 percent, with majorities of 60-72 percent favoring remaining in Canada. This decline from early 2026 levels, alongside Premier Danielle Smith’s personal opposition and ongoing court challenges from Indigenous groups over petition validity, has shaped trader views. The October 19 referendum asks only whether to begin the constitutional process for a future binding vote, not independence itself, creating additional procedural and timeline barriers before any 2026 resolution could occur. These factors align with the 93 percent implied probability that no independence referendum passes this year.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
7% probabilidad
$254,298 Vol.
$254,298 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
7% probabilidad
$254,298 Vol.
$254,298 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polls show firm support for Alberta separation or advancing to a binding independence vote has fallen to 18-33 percent, with majorities of 60-72 percent favoring remaining in Canada. This decline from early 2026 levels, alongside Premier Danielle Smith’s personal opposition and ongoing court challenges from Indigenous groups over petition validity, has shaped trader views. The October 19 referendum asks only whether to begin the constitutional process for a future binding vote, not independence itself, creating additional procedural and timeline barriers before any 2026 resolution could occur. These factors align with the 93 percent implied probability that no independence referendum passes this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volumen
$254,298Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polls show firm support for Alberta separation or advancing to a binding independence vote has fallen to 18-33 percent, with majorities of 60-72 percent favoring remaining in Canada. This decline from early 2026 levels, alongside Premier Danielle Smith’s personal opposition and ongoing court challenges from Indigenous groups over petition validity, has shaped trader views. The October 19 referendum asks only whether to begin the constitutional process for a future binding vote, not independence itself, creating additional procedural and timeline barriers before any 2026 resolution could occur. These factors align with the 93 percent implied probability that no independence referendum passes this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$254,298Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls show firm support for Alberta separation or advancing to a binding independence vote has fallen to 18-33 percent, with majorities of 60-72 percent favoring remaining in Canada. This decline from early 2026 levels, alongside Premier Danielle Smith’s personal opposition and ongoing court challenges from Indigenous groups over petition validity, has shaped trader views. The October 19 referendum asks only whether to begin the constitutional process for a future binding vote, not independence itself, creating additional procedural and timeline barriers before any 2026 resolution could occur. These factors align with the 93 percent implied probability that no independence referendum passes this year.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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