**Recent polling shows only 18-19% of Albertans support advancing toward a binding separation referendum in the October 19, 2026, vote, down from 28% earlier in the year, with roughly 72% favoring remaining a province of Canada.** Premier Danielle Smith’s government framed the question as a non-binding “referendum on a referendum,” asking voters whether Alberta should stay in Canada or begin the constitutional process for a future independence vote; Smith has stated she personally supports remaining. Court rulings struck down earlier citizen petitions over consultation requirements with Indigenous groups, and multiple polls confirm limited committed backing even among initial supporters once economic costs are considered. These developments, alongside the multi-question ballot structure and short timeline to year-end resolution, underpin trader expectations that no independence referendum will pass in 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
7% probabilidad
$254,298 Vol.
$254,298 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
7% probabilidad
$254,298 Vol.
$254,298 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Recent polling shows only 18-19% of Albertans support advancing toward a binding separation referendum in the October 19, 2026, vote, down from 28% earlier in the year, with roughly 72% favoring remaining a province of Canada.** Premier Danielle Smith’s government framed the question as a non-binding “referendum on a referendum,” asking voters whether Alberta should stay in Canada or begin the constitutional process for a future independence vote; Smith has stated she personally supports remaining. Court rulings struck down earlier citizen petitions over consultation requirements with Indigenous groups, and multiple polls confirm limited committed backing even among initial supporters once economic costs are considered. These developments, alongside the multi-question ballot structure and short timeline to year-end resolution, underpin trader expectations that no independence referendum will pass in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volumen
$254,298Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Recent polling shows only 18-19% of Albertans support advancing toward a binding separation referendum in the October 19, 2026, vote, down from 28% earlier in the year, with roughly 72% favoring remaining a province of Canada.** Premier Danielle Smith’s government framed the question as a non-binding “referendum on a referendum,” asking voters whether Alberta should stay in Canada or begin the constitutional process for a future independence vote; Smith has stated she personally supports remaining. Court rulings struck down earlier citizen petitions over consultation requirements with Indigenous groups, and multiple polls confirm limited committed backing even among initial supporters once economic costs are considered. These developments, alongside the multi-question ballot structure and short timeline to year-end resolution, underpin trader expectations that no independence referendum will pass in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$254,298Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling shows only 18-19% of Albertans support advancing toward a binding separation referendum in the October 19, 2026, vote, down from 28% earlier in the year, with roughly 72% favoring remaining a province of Canada.** Premier Danielle Smith’s government framed the question as a non-binding “referendum on a referendum,” asking voters whether Alberta should stay in Canada or begin the constitutional process for a future independence vote; Smith has stated she personally supports remaining. Court rulings struck down earlier citizen petitions over consultation requirements with Indigenous groups, and multiple polls confirm limited committed backing even among initial supporters once economic costs are considered. These developments, alongside the multi-question ballot structure and short timeline to year-end resolution, underpin trader expectations that no independence referendum will pass in 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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