Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Selic rate decrease at 75.5% implied probability for the Banco Central do Brasil's June 18-19 Copom meeting, reflecting the central bank's recent 25 basis-point cut to 10.50% in May amid moderating headline inflation at 3.93% YoY in April—within but above the 3% target midpoint. Sticky core inflation and robust Q1 GDP growth temper aggressive easing expectations, boosting no-change odds to 28.5%, while hike bets at 18% stem from BRL depreciation pressures and hawkish Copom minutes signaling data dependence. Real-money positioning highlights easing bias, though FX volatility and upcoming IPCA data could shift market-implied odds pre-decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoBank of Brazil Decision in June?
Bank of Brazil Decision in June?
Decrease 76%
No Change 26%
Increase 18%
Increase
18%
No Change
26%
Decrease
76%
Decrease 76%
No Change 26%
Increase 18%
Increase
18%
No Change
26%
Decrease
76%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Selic rate decrease at 75.5% implied probability for the Banco Central do Brasil's June 18-19 Copom meeting, reflecting the central bank's recent 25 basis-point cut to 10.50% in May amid moderating headline inflation at 3.93% YoY in April—within but above the 3% target midpoint. Sticky core inflation and robust Q1 GDP growth temper aggressive easing expectations, boosting no-change odds to 28.5%, while hike bets at 18% stem from BRL depreciation pressures and hawkish Copom minutes signaling data dependence. Real-money positioning highlights easing bias, though FX volatility and upcoming IPCA data could shift market-implied odds pre-decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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