Brazil’s official Q1 2026 GDP print of 1.8% year-over-year, released by IBGE on May 29, anchors the near-certain positioning on the 1.5%–1.8% outcome. The figure matched the upper end of pre-release analyst consensus, reflecting a rebound in agricultural output, household consumption, and fixed-capital investment after the prior quarter’s near-flat reading. Persistent high Selic rates have tempered broader momentum while full-year 2026 forecasts from institutions remain clustered near 1.7%–2.0%. Only an unexpected large revision to the preliminary accounts or a material shift in seasonal adjustments could reopen meaningful probability mass outside the current band ahead of final resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Crecimiento del PIB de Brasil en el primer trimestre de 2026?
¿Crecimiento del PIB de Brasil en el primer trimestre de 2026?
1,5%–1,8% 100.0%
<0,7% <1%
0,7%–1,0% <1%
1,1%–1,4% <1%
$34,417 Vol.
$34,417 Vol.
28 may 2026
<0,7%
No
0,7%–1,0%
No
1,1%–1,4%
No
1,5%–1,8%
Sí
1,9%–2,2%
No
2.3%–2.6%
No
≥2,7%
No
1,5%–1,8% 100.0%
<0,7% <1%
0,7%–1,0% <1%
1,1%–1,4% <1%
$34,417 Vol.
$34,417 Vol.
28 may 2026
<0,7%
$18,091 Vol.
No
0,7%–1,0%
$1,134 Vol.
No
1,1%–1,4%
$4,495 Vol.
No
1,5%–1,8%
$2,438 Vol.
Sí
1,9%–2,2%
$3,318 Vol.
No
2.3%–2.6%
$1,640 Vol.
No
≥2,7%
$3,300 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil’s official Q1 2026 GDP print of 1.8% year-over-year, released by IBGE on May 29, anchors the near-certain positioning on the 1.5%–1.8% outcome. The figure matched the upper end of pre-release analyst consensus, reflecting a rebound in agricultural output, household consumption, and fixed-capital investment after the prior quarter’s near-flat reading. Persistent high Selic rates have tempered broader momentum while full-year 2026 forecasts from institutions remain clustered near 1.7%–2.0%. Only an unexpected large revision to the preliminary accounts or a material shift in seasonal adjustments could reopen meaningful probability mass outside the current band ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Volumen
$34,417Fecha de finalización
29 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil’s official Q1 2026 GDP print of 1.8% year-over-year, released by IBGE on May 29, anchors the near-certain positioning on the 1.5%–1.8% outcome. The figure matched the upper end of pre-release analyst consensus, reflecting a rebound in agricultural output, household consumption, and fixed-capital investment after the prior quarter’s near-flat reading. Persistent high Selic rates have tempered broader momentum while full-year 2026 forecasts from institutions remain clustered near 1.7%–2.0%. Only an unexpected large revision to the preliminary accounts or a material shift in seasonal adjustments could reopen meaningful probability mass outside the current band ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volumen
$34,417Fecha de finalización
29 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Brazil’s official Q1 2026 GDP print of 1.8% year-over-year, released by IBGE on May 29, anchors the near-certain positioning on the 1.5%–1.8% outcome. The figure matched the upper end of pre-release analyst consensus, reflecting a rebound in agricultural output, household consumption, and fixed-capital investment after the prior quarter’s near-flat reading. Persistent high Selic rates have tempered broader momentum while full-year 2026 forecasts from institutions remain clustered near 1.7%–2.0%. Only an unexpected large revision to the preliminary accounts or a material shift in seasonal adjustments could reopen meaningful probability mass outside the current band ahead of final resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes