Recent quarterly data showing modest 0.2% GDP expansion in Q2 2026, alongside persistent energy price pressures from Middle East supply disruptions and subdued household consumption, have kept trader-implied probabilities tightly clustered across low-to-moderate growth brackets. Fiscal stimulus and defense outlays are providing incremental support, yet weak industrial sentiment, declining capital formation, and elevated inflation near 2.9% introduce downside risks that balance the distribution. With Q3 data still early in the reporting cycle, upcoming releases on industrial production, exports, and consumer indicators will likely determine whether momentum accelerates toward the 1.0-1.2% range or remains anchored near zero, reflecting the market's assessment of these offsetting macroeconomic forces.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado1.0-1.2% 39%
0.1-0.3% 38%
0.4-0.6% 38%
≤0.0% 38%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 oct 2026
≤0.0%
38%
0.1-0.3%
38%
0.4-0.6%
38%
0.7-0.9%
28%
1.0-1.2%
39%
1.3%+
25%
1.0-1.2% 39%
0.1-0.3% 38%
0.4-0.6% 38%
≤0.0% 38%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 oct 2026
≤0.0%
$90 Vol.
38%
0.1-0.3%
$0 Vol.
38%
0.4-0.6%
$0 Vol.
38%
0.7-0.9%
$0 Vol.
28%
1.0-1.2%
$0 Vol.
39%
1.3%+
$0 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent quarterly data showing modest 0.2% GDP expansion in Q2 2026, alongside persistent energy price pressures from Middle East supply disruptions and subdued household consumption, have kept trader-implied probabilities tightly clustered across low-to-moderate growth brackets. Fiscal stimulus and defense outlays are providing incremental support, yet weak industrial sentiment, declining capital formation, and elevated inflation near 2.9% introduce downside risks that balance the distribution. With Q3 data still early in the reporting cycle, upcoming releases on industrial production, exports, and consumer indicators will likely determine whether momentum accelerates toward the 1.0-1.2% range or remains anchored near zero, reflecting the market's assessment of these offsetting macroeconomic forces.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Volumen
$90Fecha de finalización
30 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent quarterly data showing modest 0.2% GDP expansion in Q2 2026, alongside persistent energy price pressures from Middle East supply disruptions and subdued household consumption, have kept trader-implied probabilities tightly clustered across low-to-moderate growth brackets. Fiscal stimulus and defense outlays are providing incremental support, yet weak industrial sentiment, declining capital formation, and elevated inflation near 2.9% introduce downside risks that balance the distribution. With Q3 data still early in the reporting cycle, upcoming releases on industrial production, exports, and consumer indicators will likely determine whether momentum accelerates toward the 1.0-1.2% range or remains anchored near zero, reflecting the market's assessment of these offsetting macroeconomic forces.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$90Fecha de finalización
30 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent quarterly data showing modest 0.2% GDP expansion in Q2 2026, alongside persistent energy price pressures from Middle East supply disruptions and subdued household consumption, have kept trader-implied probabilities tightly clustered across low-to-moderate growth brackets. Fiscal stimulus and defense outlays are providing incremental support, yet weak industrial sentiment, declining capital formation, and elevated inflation near 2.9% introduce downside risks that balance the distribution. With Q3 data still early in the reporting cycle, upcoming releases on industrial production, exports, and consumer indicators will likely determine whether momentum accelerates toward the 1.0-1.2% range or remains anchored near zero, reflecting the market's assessment of these offsetting macroeconomic forces.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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