Recent upward revisions to Germany's 2026 GDP growth forecasts, now centering around 1.3 percent at institutions including the Kiel Institute and IMK, reflect stronger-than-expected first-half exports and additional government spending on defense and infrastructure. These factors have lifted market-implied odds for outcomes at or above 1.0 percent. Persistent headwinds include elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions, subdued private consumption amid 2.7 percent inflation, and temporary Q3 drags from low Rhine water levels that are expected to limit quarterly expansion to around 0.1 percent. Traders are pricing the recovery as underway yet fragile, with fiscal support providing the main near-term lift while structural constraints and labor market softness limit upside.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado1.3%+ 47%
1.0-1.2% 32%
0.7-0.9% 24%
≤0.0% 1.8%
$43,424 Vol.
$43,424 Vol.
30 oct 2026
≤0.0%
2%
0.1-0.3%
1%
0.4-0.6%
1%
0.7-0.9%
24%
1.0-1.2%
32%
1.3%+
47%
1.3%+ 47%
1.0-1.2% 32%
0.7-0.9% 24%
≤0.0% 1.8%
$43,424 Vol.
$43,424 Vol.
30 oct 2026
≤0.0%
$1,639 Vol.
2%
0.1-0.3%
$1,813 Vol.
1%
0.4-0.6%
$871 Vol.
1%
0.7-0.9%
$7,547 Vol.
24%
1.0-1.2%
$24,262 Vol.
32%
1.3%+
$7,292 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent upward revisions to Germany's 2026 GDP growth forecasts, now centering around 1.3 percent at institutions including the Kiel Institute and IMK, reflect stronger-than-expected first-half exports and additional government spending on defense and infrastructure. These factors have lifted market-implied odds for outcomes at or above 1.0 percent. Persistent headwinds include elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions, subdued private consumption amid 2.7 percent inflation, and temporary Q3 drags from low Rhine water levels that are expected to limit quarterly expansion to around 0.1 percent. Traders are pricing the recovery as underway yet fragile, with fiscal support providing the main near-term lift while structural constraints and labor market softness limit upside.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Volumen
$43,424Fecha de finalización
30 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent upward revisions to Germany's 2026 GDP growth forecasts, now centering around 1.3 percent at institutions including the Kiel Institute and IMK, reflect stronger-than-expected first-half exports and additional government spending on defense and infrastructure. These factors have lifted market-implied odds for outcomes at or above 1.0 percent. Persistent headwinds include elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions, subdued private consumption amid 2.7 percent inflation, and temporary Q3 drags from low Rhine water levels that are expected to limit quarterly expansion to around 0.1 percent. Traders are pricing the recovery as underway yet fragile, with fiscal support providing the main near-term lift while structural constraints and labor market softness limit upside.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$43,424Fecha de finalización
30 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent upward revisions to Germany's 2026 GDP growth forecasts, now centering around 1.3 percent at institutions including the Kiel Institute and IMK, reflect stronger-than-expected first-half exports and additional government spending on defense and infrastructure. These factors have lifted market-implied odds for outcomes at or above 1.0 percent. Persistent headwinds include elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions, subdued private consumption amid 2.7 percent inflation, and temporary Q3 drags from low Rhine water levels that are expected to limit quarterly expansion to around 0.1 percent. Traders are pricing the recovery as underway yet fragile, with fiscal support providing the main near-term lift while structural constraints and labor market softness limit upside.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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