Mexico’s Q2 2026 GDP expanded 1.4% quarter-over-quarter, the strongest pace since late 2020 and second-highest among G20 economies per OECD data, rebounding from a Q1 contraction amid a transitory World Cup boost to services and consumption. This momentum, alongside resilient U.S. export demand and manufacturing integration under USMCA, underpins the market’s clustering around 1.5-2.5% growth for Q3, with the 1.5-2.0% bin leading at 34%. Offsetting factors include fading World Cup effects, subdued private investment, persistent trade-policy uncertainty ahead of USMCA reviews, and sticky core inflation near 4.2% that has prompted Banxico to hold its policy rate at 6.5%. Traders appear to weigh these crosscurrents evenly, with upcoming September activity indicators and the late-October Q3 preliminary release as key near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado1.5-2.0% 34%
2.0-2.5% 32%
1.0-1.5% 13.7%
2.5-3.0% 11%
$35,387 Vol.
$35,387 Vol.
30 oct 2026
<0.5%
1%
0.5-1.0%
9%
1.0-1.5%
14%
1.5-2.0%
34%
2.0-2.5%
32%
2.5-3.0%
11%
3.0-3.5%
2%
3.5%+
3%
1.5-2.0% 34%
2.0-2.5% 32%
1.0-1.5% 13.7%
2.5-3.0% 11%
$35,387 Vol.
$35,387 Vol.
30 oct 2026
<0.5%
$957 Vol.
1%
0.5-1.0%
$721 Vol.
9%
1.0-1.5%
$4,037 Vol.
14%
1.5-2.0%
$12,344 Vol.
34%
2.0-2.5%
$13,787 Vol.
32%
2.5-3.0%
$1,929 Vol.
11%
3.0-3.5%
$800 Vol.
2%
3.5%+
$811 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico’s Q2 2026 GDP expanded 1.4% quarter-over-quarter, the strongest pace since late 2020 and second-highest among G20 economies per OECD data, rebounding from a Q1 contraction amid a transitory World Cup boost to services and consumption. This momentum, alongside resilient U.S. export demand and manufacturing integration under USMCA, underpins the market’s clustering around 1.5-2.5% growth for Q3, with the 1.5-2.0% bin leading at 34%. Offsetting factors include fading World Cup effects, subdued private investment, persistent trade-policy uncertainty ahead of USMCA reviews, and sticky core inflation near 4.2% that has prompted Banxico to hold its policy rate at 6.5%. Traders appear to weigh these crosscurrents evenly, with upcoming September activity indicators and the late-October Q3 preliminary release as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$35,387Fecha de finalización
30 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico’s Q2 2026 GDP expanded 1.4% quarter-over-quarter, the strongest pace since late 2020 and second-highest among G20 economies per OECD data, rebounding from a Q1 contraction amid a transitory World Cup boost to services and consumption. This momentum, alongside resilient U.S. export demand and manufacturing integration under USMCA, underpins the market’s clustering around 1.5-2.5% growth for Q3, with the 1.5-2.0% bin leading at 34%. Offsetting factors include fading World Cup effects, subdued private investment, persistent trade-policy uncertainty ahead of USMCA reviews, and sticky core inflation near 4.2% that has prompted Banxico to hold its policy rate at 6.5%. Traders appear to weigh these crosscurrents evenly, with upcoming September activity indicators and the late-October Q3 preliminary release as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$35,387Fecha de finalización
30 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mexico’s Q2 2026 GDP expanded 1.4% quarter-over-quarter, the strongest pace since late 2020 and second-highest among G20 economies per OECD data, rebounding from a Q1 contraction amid a transitory World Cup boost to services and consumption. This momentum, alongside resilient U.S. export demand and manufacturing integration under USMCA, underpins the market’s clustering around 1.5-2.5% growth for Q3, with the 1.5-2.0% bin leading at 34%. Offsetting factors include fading World Cup effects, subdued private investment, persistent trade-policy uncertainty ahead of USMCA reviews, and sticky core inflation near 4.2% that has prompted Banxico to hold its policy rate at 6.5%. Traders appear to weigh these crosscurrents evenly, with upcoming September activity indicators and the late-October Q3 preliminary release as key near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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