Strong institutional forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, with the CBO projecting 2.2% expansion, Vanguard at 2.3%, and IMF estimates near 2.3%, consistent with Q1 growth of 2.1% and Q2 at 1.5% annualized. Resilient business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies, alongside steady consumer spending and contained labor market conditions, have sustained above-trend activity despite tariff headwinds and prior fiscal adjustments. Trader consensus reflects these verified data releases and forward-looking outlooks from major banks showing no recession baseline. Tail risks include abrupt policy escalations, geopolitical oil shocks, or sharper-than-expected consumer pullback that could tip full-year results below zero, though such scenarios remain low-probability given current momentum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Crecimiento negativo del PIB en 2026?
¿Crecimiento negativo del PIB en 2026?
Sí
4% probabilidad
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
29 ene 2027
Sí
4% probabilidad
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
29 ene 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong institutional forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, with the CBO projecting 2.2% expansion, Vanguard at 2.3%, and IMF estimates near 2.3%, consistent with Q1 growth of 2.1% and Q2 at 1.5% annualized. Resilient business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies, alongside steady consumer spending and contained labor market conditions, have sustained above-trend activity despite tariff headwinds and prior fiscal adjustments. Trader consensus reflects these verified data releases and forward-looking outlooks from major banks showing no recession baseline. Tail risks include abrupt policy escalations, geopolitical oil shocks, or sharper-than-expected consumer pullback that could tip full-year results below zero, though such scenarios remain low-probability given current momentum.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volumen
$32,234Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong institutional forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, with the CBO projecting 2.2% expansion, Vanguard at 2.3%, and IMF estimates near 2.3%, consistent with Q1 growth of 2.1% and Q2 at 1.5% annualized. Resilient business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies, alongside steady consumer spending and contained labor market conditions, have sustained above-trend activity despite tariff headwinds and prior fiscal adjustments. Trader consensus reflects these verified data releases and forward-looking outlooks from major banks showing no recession baseline. Tail risks include abrupt policy escalations, geopolitical oil shocks, or sharper-than-expected consumer pullback that could tip full-year results below zero, though such scenarios remain low-probability given current momentum.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volumen
$32,234Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong institutional forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, with the CBO projecting 2.2% expansion, Vanguard at 2.3%, and IMF estimates near 2.3%, consistent with Q1 growth of 2.1% and Q2 at 1.5% annualized. Resilient business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies, alongside steady consumer spending and contained labor market conditions, have sustained above-trend activity despite tariff headwinds and prior fiscal adjustments. Trader consensus reflects these verified data releases and forward-looking outlooks from major banks showing no recession baseline. Tail risks include abrupt policy escalations, geopolitical oil shocks, or sharper-than-expected consumer pullback that could tip full-year results below zero, though such scenarios remain low-probability given current momentum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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