Recent first-quarter 2026 GDP data, revised to a 1.6 percent annualized rate after a weak 0.5 percent in Q4 2025, alongside fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act boosting investment and consumption, underpin the 46.5 percent market-implied odds for full-year growth above 2.5 percent. Tariff effects, elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, and moderating consumer spending amid 3.3–3.8 percent headline inflation readings have shifted some probability toward the 1.5–2.5 percent brackets. Forecaster consensus has eased to around 2.2 percent, with the Federal Reserve’s March projections centered near 2.3 percent. Key upcoming releases include the Q1 final GDP estimate, May–June CPI and PCE data, and labor market reports that could refine rate-cut expectations and growth trajectories.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCrecimiento del PIB en 2026
Crecimiento del PIB en 2026
>2,5% 46%
1,5–2,0% 17.8%
2.0–2.5% 15%
1.0–1.5% 11.8%
$30,024 Vol.
$30,024 Vol.
29 ene 2027
<0.5%
5%
0.5–1.0%
6%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1,5–2,0%
18%
2.0–2.5%
15%
>2,5%
46%
>2,5% 46%
1,5–2,0% 17.8%
2.0–2.5% 15%
1.0–1.5% 11.8%
$30,024 Vol.
$30,024 Vol.
29 ene 2027
<0.5%
$4,114 Vol.
5%
0.5–1.0%
$15,520 Vol.
6%
1.0–1.5%
$1,936 Vol.
12%
1,5–2,0%
$1,982 Vol.
18%
2.0–2.5%
$2,150 Vol.
15%
>2,5%
$4,322 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent first-quarter 2026 GDP data, revised to a 1.6 percent annualized rate after a weak 0.5 percent in Q4 2025, alongside fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act boosting investment and consumption, underpin the 46.5 percent market-implied odds for full-year growth above 2.5 percent. Tariff effects, elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, and moderating consumer spending amid 3.3–3.8 percent headline inflation readings have shifted some probability toward the 1.5–2.5 percent brackets. Forecaster consensus has eased to around 2.2 percent, with the Federal Reserve’s March projections centered near 2.3 percent. Key upcoming releases include the Q1 final GDP estimate, May–June CPI and PCE data, and labor market reports that could refine rate-cut expectations and growth trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$30,024Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent first-quarter 2026 GDP data, revised to a 1.6 percent annualized rate after a weak 0.5 percent in Q4 2025, alongside fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act boosting investment and consumption, underpin the 46.5 percent market-implied odds for full-year growth above 2.5 percent. Tariff effects, elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, and moderating consumer spending amid 3.3–3.8 percent headline inflation readings have shifted some probability toward the 1.5–2.5 percent brackets. Forecaster consensus has eased to around 2.2 percent, with the Federal Reserve’s March projections centered near 2.3 percent. Key upcoming releases include the Q1 final GDP estimate, May–June CPI and PCE data, and labor market reports that could refine rate-cut expectations and growth trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$30,024Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent first-quarter 2026 GDP data, revised to a 1.6 percent annualized rate after a weak 0.5 percent in Q4 2025, alongside fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act boosting investment and consumption, underpin the 46.5 percent market-implied odds for full-year growth above 2.5 percent. Tariff effects, elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, and moderating consumer spending amid 3.3–3.8 percent headline inflation readings have shifted some probability toward the 1.5–2.5 percent brackets. Forecaster consensus has eased to around 2.2 percent, with the Federal Reserve’s March projections centered near 2.3 percent. Key upcoming releases include the Q1 final GDP estimate, May–June CPI and PCE data, and labor market reports that could refine rate-cut expectations and growth trajectories.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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