Recent U.S. economic data and fiscal developments are anchoring trader sentiment in the GDP growth market for 2026. The Q1 2026 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized growth was revised down to 1.6%, following a subdued 0.5% pace in Q4 2025, yet the leading >2.5% outcome at 46% implied probability reflects expectations that the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax cuts and immediate expensing provisions will lift consumer spending and business investment through the year. Offsetting factors include tariff-related pressures on consumption and imports, reduced immigration dampening labor supply, and higher energy costs. Market-implied odds for the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bands capture the balance between these tailwinds and headwinds, with upcoming Q2 GDP data and FOMC communications likely to influence further repricing of the growth path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCrecimiento del PIB en 2026
Crecimiento del PIB en 2026
>2,5% 46%
1,5–2,0% 18.0%
2.0–2.5% 15%
1.0–1.5% 13.7%
$30,015 Vol.
$30,015 Vol.
29 ene 2027
<0.5%
5%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
14%
1,5–2,0%
18%
2.0–2.5%
15%
>2,5%
46%
>2,5% 46%
1,5–2,0% 18.0%
2.0–2.5% 15%
1.0–1.5% 13.7%
$30,015 Vol.
$30,015 Vol.
29 ene 2027
<0.5%
$4,111 Vol.
5%
0.5–1.0%
$15,519 Vol.
5%
1.0–1.5%
$1,936 Vol.
14%
1,5–2,0%
$1,978 Vol.
18%
2.0–2.5%
$2,150 Vol.
15%
>2,5%
$4,320 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and fiscal developments are anchoring trader sentiment in the GDP growth market for 2026. The Q1 2026 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized growth was revised down to 1.6%, following a subdued 0.5% pace in Q4 2025, yet the leading >2.5% outcome at 46% implied probability reflects expectations that the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax cuts and immediate expensing provisions will lift consumer spending and business investment through the year. Offsetting factors include tariff-related pressures on consumption and imports, reduced immigration dampening labor supply, and higher energy costs. Market-implied odds for the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bands capture the balance between these tailwinds and headwinds, with upcoming Q2 GDP data and FOMC communications likely to influence further repricing of the growth path.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$30,015Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and fiscal developments are anchoring trader sentiment in the GDP growth market for 2026. The Q1 2026 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized growth was revised down to 1.6%, following a subdued 0.5% pace in Q4 2025, yet the leading >2.5% outcome at 46% implied probability reflects expectations that the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax cuts and immediate expensing provisions will lift consumer spending and business investment through the year. Offsetting factors include tariff-related pressures on consumption and imports, reduced immigration dampening labor supply, and higher energy costs. Market-implied odds for the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bands capture the balance between these tailwinds and headwinds, with upcoming Q2 GDP data and FOMC communications likely to influence further repricing of the growth path.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$30,015Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent U.S. economic data and fiscal developments are anchoring trader sentiment in the GDP growth market for 2026. The Q1 2026 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized growth was revised down to 1.6%, following a subdued 0.5% pace in Q4 2025, yet the leading >2.5% outcome at 46% implied probability reflects expectations that the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax cuts and immediate expensing provisions will lift consumer spending and business investment through the year. Offsetting factors include tariff-related pressures on consumption and imports, reduced immigration dampening labor supply, and higher energy costs. Market-implied odds for the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bands capture the balance between these tailwinds and headwinds, with upcoming Q2 GDP data and FOMC communications likely to influence further repricing of the growth path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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