Recent U.S. fiscal measures, including the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax cuts and expensing provisions, alongside resilient AI-related capital spending, underpin the 45.5% implied probability for full-year 2026 GDP growth above 2.5%. These tailwinds offset Q1 2026’s 1.6% annualized pace—revised lower from investment and consumer weakness—and elevated May CPI inflation at 4.2%, driven by energy prices amid Middle East tensions. Professional forecasts cluster between 2.0% and 2.4%, with the labor market stable near 4.4% unemployment supporting a soft-landing baseline. Markets price in tariff and immigration drags as secondary risks, keeping lower-growth buckets below 20% each.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCrecimiento del PIB en 2026
Crecimiento del PIB en 2026
>2,5% 46%
1,5–2,0% 18.0%
2.0–2.5% 15%
1.0–1.5% 12.0%
$30,021 Vol.
$30,021 Vol.
29 ene 2027
<0.5%
5%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1,5–2,0%
18%
2.0–2.5%
15%
>2,5%
46%
>2,5% 46%
1,5–2,0% 18.0%
2.0–2.5% 15%
1.0–1.5% 12.0%
$30,021 Vol.
$30,021 Vol.
29 ene 2027
<0.5%
$4,114 Vol.
5%
0.5–1.0%
$15,520 Vol.
5%
1.0–1.5%
$1,936 Vol.
12%
1,5–2,0%
$1,979 Vol.
18%
2.0–2.5%
$2,150 Vol.
15%
>2,5%
$4,322 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. fiscal measures, including the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax cuts and expensing provisions, alongside resilient AI-related capital spending, underpin the 45.5% implied probability for full-year 2026 GDP growth above 2.5%. These tailwinds offset Q1 2026’s 1.6% annualized pace—revised lower from investment and consumer weakness—and elevated May CPI inflation at 4.2%, driven by energy prices amid Middle East tensions. Professional forecasts cluster between 2.0% and 2.4%, with the labor market stable near 4.4% unemployment supporting a soft-landing baseline. Markets price in tariff and immigration drags as secondary risks, keeping lower-growth buckets below 20% each.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$30,021Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. fiscal measures, including the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax cuts and expensing provisions, alongside resilient AI-related capital spending, underpin the 45.5% implied probability for full-year 2026 GDP growth above 2.5%. These tailwinds offset Q1 2026’s 1.6% annualized pace—revised lower from investment and consumer weakness—and elevated May CPI inflation at 4.2%, driven by energy prices amid Middle East tensions. Professional forecasts cluster between 2.0% and 2.4%, with the labor market stable near 4.4% unemployment supporting a soft-landing baseline. Markets price in tariff and immigration drags as secondary risks, keeping lower-growth buckets below 20% each.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$30,021Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent U.S. fiscal measures, including the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax cuts and expensing provisions, alongside resilient AI-related capital spending, underpin the 45.5% implied probability for full-year 2026 GDP growth above 2.5%. These tailwinds offset Q1 2026’s 1.6% annualized pace—revised lower from investment and consumer weakness—and elevated May CPI inflation at 4.2%, driven by energy prices amid Middle East tensions. Professional forecasts cluster between 2.0% and 2.4%, with the labor market stable near 4.4% unemployment supporting a soft-landing baseline. Markets price in tariff and immigration drags as secondary risks, keeping lower-growth buckets below 20% each.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes