Recent ECB staff projections released September 10 forecast 0.9% euro area real GDP growth for 2026, revised modestly higher from June amid Q2 outperformance. This aligns closely with the market-implied odds placing 62.9% probability on 0-1.0% annual growth and 24.5% on 1.0-2.0%. Eurostat data showed 0.6% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q2, lifting the year-over-year rate to 1.2%, while adjusted measures excluding Irish volatility point to underlying momentum near 1.2%. Persistent energy price pressures from Middle East developments, limited exposure to global AI demand, and subdued domestic demand continue to cap the outlook, with professional forecaster surveys clustering between 0.6% and 0.9%. Traders appear to be pricing in these baseline expectations ahead of further Q3 indicators and any escalation in geopolitical risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCrecimiento anual del PIB de la zona euro 2026
Crecimiento anual del PIB de la zona euro 2026
0-1,0% 62.8%
1,0-2,0% 30%
<0% 1.5%
6,0-7,0% <1%
$50,693 Vol.
$50,693 Vol.
30 ene 2027
<0%
2%
0-1,0%
63%
1,0-2,0%
30%
2,0-3,0%
<1%
3,0-4,0%
<1%
4,0-5,0%
<1%
5,0-6,0%
<1%
6,0-7,0%
<1%
7.0%+
<1%
0-1,0% 62.8%
1,0-2,0% 30%
<0% 1.5%
6,0-7,0% <1%
$50,693 Vol.
$50,693 Vol.
30 ene 2027
<0%
$2,837 Vol.
2%
0-1,0%
$16,078 Vol.
63%
1,0-2,0%
$15,024 Vol.
30%
2,0-3,0%
$2,308 Vol.
<1%
3,0-4,0%
$2,212 Vol.
<1%
4,0-5,0%
$3,338 Vol.
<1%
5,0-6,0%
$2,290 Vol.
<1%
6,0-7,0%
$3,762 Vol.
<1%
7.0%+
$2,844 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ECB staff projections released September 10 forecast 0.9% euro area real GDP growth for 2026, revised modestly higher from June amid Q2 outperformance. This aligns closely with the market-implied odds placing 62.9% probability on 0-1.0% annual growth and 24.5% on 1.0-2.0%. Eurostat data showed 0.6% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q2, lifting the year-over-year rate to 1.2%, while adjusted measures excluding Irish volatility point to underlying momentum near 1.2%. Persistent energy price pressures from Middle East developments, limited exposure to global AI demand, and subdued domestic demand continue to cap the outlook, with professional forecaster surveys clustering between 0.6% and 0.9%. Traders appear to be pricing in these baseline expectations ahead of further Q3 indicators and any escalation in geopolitical risks.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$50,693Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ECB staff projections released September 10 forecast 0.9% euro area real GDP growth for 2026, revised modestly higher from June amid Q2 outperformance. This aligns closely with the market-implied odds placing 62.9% probability on 0-1.0% annual growth and 24.5% on 1.0-2.0%. Eurostat data showed 0.6% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q2, lifting the year-over-year rate to 1.2%, while adjusted measures excluding Irish volatility point to underlying momentum near 1.2%. Persistent energy price pressures from Middle East developments, limited exposure to global AI demand, and subdued domestic demand continue to cap the outlook, with professional forecaster surveys clustering between 0.6% and 0.9%. Traders appear to be pricing in these baseline expectations ahead of further Q3 indicators and any escalation in geopolitical risks.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$50,693Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent ECB staff projections released September 10 forecast 0.9% euro area real GDP growth for 2026, revised modestly higher from June amid Q2 outperformance. This aligns closely with the market-implied odds placing 62.9% probability on 0-1.0% annual growth and 24.5% on 1.0-2.0%. Eurostat data showed 0.6% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q2, lifting the year-over-year rate to 1.2%, while adjusted measures excluding Irish volatility point to underlying momentum near 1.2%. Persistent energy price pressures from Middle East developments, limited exposure to global AI demand, and subdued domestic demand continue to cap the outlook, with professional forecaster surveys clustering between 0.6% and 0.9%. Traders appear to be pricing in these baseline expectations ahead of further Q3 indicators and any escalation in geopolitical risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes