Recent downward revisions in official forecasts have anchored trader sentiment around subdued Eurozone GDP growth for 2026. The ECB's June 2026 Eurosystem staff projections placed annual real GDP expansion at 0.8%, lowered by 0.1 percentage point from March amid the energy price shock from the Middle East conflict, with similar cuts from the European Commission and OECD consensus near 0.8-0.9%. Elevated inflation pressures, now projected at 3.0% for the year, prompted the ECB to raise policy rates by 25 basis points in June while maintaining a data-dependent stance. These developments, alongside softening PMI readings and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, underpin the 66.8% market-implied odds on 0-1.0% growth and the secondary 24.5% probability on 1.0-2.0%, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on modest domestic demand recovery.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado0-1,0% 66.9%
1,0-2,0% 25%
<0% 5.8%
4,0-5,0% <1%
$28,764 Vol.
$28,764 Vol.
31 ene 2027
<0%
6%
0-1,0%
67%
1,0-2,0%
25%
2,0-3,0%
<1%
3,0-4,0%
<1%
4,0-5,0%
1%
5,0-6,0%
<1%
6,0-7,0%
1%
7.0%+
<1%
0-1,0% 66.9%
1,0-2,0% 25%
<0% 5.8%
4,0-5,0% <1%
$28,764 Vol.
$28,764 Vol.
31 ene 2027
<0%
$1,615 Vol.
6%
0-1,0%
$10,688 Vol.
67%
1,0-2,0%
$6,957 Vol.
25%
2,0-3,0%
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
3,0-4,0%
$1,027 Vol.
<1%
4,0-5,0%
$2,108 Vol.
1%
5,0-6,0%
$1,127 Vol.
<1%
6,0-7,0%
$2,544 Vol.
1%
7.0%+
$1,579 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent downward revisions in official forecasts have anchored trader sentiment around subdued Eurozone GDP growth for 2026. The ECB's June 2026 Eurosystem staff projections placed annual real GDP expansion at 0.8%, lowered by 0.1 percentage point from March amid the energy price shock from the Middle East conflict, with similar cuts from the European Commission and OECD consensus near 0.8-0.9%. Elevated inflation pressures, now projected at 3.0% for the year, prompted the ECB to raise policy rates by 25 basis points in June while maintaining a data-dependent stance. These developments, alongside softening PMI readings and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, underpin the 66.8% market-implied odds on 0-1.0% growth and the secondary 24.5% probability on 1.0-2.0%, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on modest domestic demand recovery.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$28,764Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent downward revisions in official forecasts have anchored trader sentiment around subdued Eurozone GDP growth for 2026. The ECB's June 2026 Eurosystem staff projections placed annual real GDP expansion at 0.8%, lowered by 0.1 percentage point from March amid the energy price shock from the Middle East conflict, with similar cuts from the European Commission and OECD consensus near 0.8-0.9%. Elevated inflation pressures, now projected at 3.0% for the year, prompted the ECB to raise policy rates by 25 basis points in June while maintaining a data-dependent stance. These developments, alongside softening PMI readings and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, underpin the 66.8% market-implied odds on 0-1.0% growth and the secondary 24.5% probability on 1.0-2.0%, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on modest domestic demand recovery.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$28,764Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent downward revisions in official forecasts have anchored trader sentiment around subdued Eurozone GDP growth for 2026. The ECB's June 2026 Eurosystem staff projections placed annual real GDP expansion at 0.8%, lowered by 0.1 percentage point from March amid the energy price shock from the Middle East conflict, with similar cuts from the European Commission and OECD consensus near 0.8-0.9%. Elevated inflation pressures, now projected at 3.0% for the year, prompted the ECB to raise policy rates by 25 basis points in June while maintaining a data-dependent stance. These developments, alongside softening PMI readings and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, underpin the 66.8% market-implied odds on 0-1.0% growth and the secondary 24.5% probability on 1.0-2.0%, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on modest domestic demand recovery.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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