Recent polls from Datafolha, Futura, and MDA in early April show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding narrow first-round leads over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro—typically 2-9 points amid 10-19% undecided voters—but runoff simulations often favor Flávio or result in statistical ties, reflecting a tightening race as he closes gaps seen in March surveys. This fragmented field, with no other candidate above 7%, amplifies the duel between Lula's incumbency advantages and Flávio's momentum from his father's base. A Supreme Court-ordered Federal Police probe into Flávio for alleged January defamation added fresh uncertainty just days ago. Separation could arise from economic data, key endorsements, scandals, or candidate consolidations ahead of the October 4 first round.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoFlávio Bolsonaro 41.3%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 40%
Renan Santos 6.5%
Fernando Haddad 4.4%
$51,214,224 Vol.
$51,214,224 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
41%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
40%
Renan Santos
6%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Camilo Santana
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
2%
Romeu Zema
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 41.3%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 40%
Renan Santos 6.5%
Fernando Haddad 4.4%
$51,214,224 Vol.
$51,214,224 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
41%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
40%
Renan Santos
6%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Camilo Santana
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
2%
Romeu Zema
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from Datafolha, Futura, and MDA in early April show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding narrow first-round leads over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro—typically 2-9 points amid 10-19% undecided voters—but runoff simulations often favor Flávio or result in statistical ties, reflecting a tightening race as he closes gaps seen in March surveys. This fragmented field, with no other candidate above 7%, amplifies the duel between Lula's incumbency advantages and Flávio's momentum from his father's base. A Supreme Court-ordered Federal Police probe into Flávio for alleged January defamation added fresh uncertainty just days ago. Separation could arise from economic data, key endorsements, scandals, or candidate consolidations ahead of the October 4 first round.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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