Democratic incumbent Mike Thompson's long tenure and the district's partisan composition anchor trader expectations for a Democratic hold in the November 2026 general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic following redistricting under Proposition 50, which adjusted boundaries to include more Democratic-leaning areas in Northern California. Thompson, a moderate with consistent primary and general election margins exceeding 60 percent in prior cycles, faces a primary challenge on June 2 but holds overwhelming advantages in name recognition and fundraising. A Republican victory would require either an unprecedented national shift against Democrats or a major disruption such as an incumbent health event or scandal capable of overcoming the district's structural Democratic edge.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
92%
Partido Republicano
7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$791 Vol.
92%
Partido Republicano
$2,084 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Mike Thompson's long tenure and the district's partisan composition anchor trader expectations for a Democratic hold in the November 2026 general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic following redistricting under Proposition 50, which adjusted boundaries to include more Democratic-leaning areas in Northern California. Thompson, a moderate with consistent primary and general election margins exceeding 60 percent in prior cycles, faces a primary challenge on June 2 but holds overwhelming advantages in name recognition and fundraising. A Republican victory would require either an unprecedented national shift against Democrats or a major disruption such as an incumbent health event or scandal capable of overcoming the district's structural Democratic edge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$2,875Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Mike Thompson's long tenure and the district's partisan composition anchor trader expectations for a Democratic hold in the November 2026 general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic following redistricting under Proposition 50, which adjusted boundaries to include more Democratic-leaning areas in Northern California. Thompson, a moderate with consistent primary and general election margins exceeding 60 percent in prior cycles, faces a primary challenge on June 2 but holds overwhelming advantages in name recognition and fundraising. A Republican victory would require either an unprecedented national shift against Democrats or a major disruption such as an incumbent health event or scandal capable of overcoming the district's structural Democratic edge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$2,875Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Mike Thompson's long tenure and the district's partisan composition anchor trader expectations for a Democratic hold in the November 2026 general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic following redistricting under Proposition 50, which adjusted boundaries to include more Democratic-leaning areas in Northern California. Thompson, a moderate with consistent primary and general election margins exceeding 60 percent in prior cycles, faces a primary challenge on June 2 but holds overwhelming advantages in name recognition and fundraising. A Republican victory would require either an unprecedented national shift against Democrats or a major disruption such as an incumbent health event or scandal capable of overcoming the district's structural Democratic edge.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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