The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California's 4th congressional district advanced incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones while eliminating all Republican candidates, including the leading Republican finisher at roughly 21 percent. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election between the two Democrats. The district's partisan composition, reinforced by the Prop. 50 redistricting map, produces consistent Democratic majorities in presidential and congressional voting. This primary outcome drives the overwhelming trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner, as only an unforeseen withdrawal, legal disqualification, or other structural change before November could alter the result.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$13,721 Vol.
$13,721 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
96%
Partido Republicano
3%
$13,721 Vol.
$13,721 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$5,915 Vol.
96%
Partido Republicano
$7,806 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California's 4th congressional district advanced incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones while eliminating all Republican candidates, including the leading Republican finisher at roughly 21 percent. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election between the two Democrats. The district's partisan composition, reinforced by the Prop. 50 redistricting map, produces consistent Democratic majorities in presidential and congressional voting. This primary outcome drives the overwhelming trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner, as only an unforeseen withdrawal, legal disqualification, or other structural change before November could alter the result.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$13,721Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California's 4th congressional district advanced incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones while eliminating all Republican candidates, including the leading Republican finisher at roughly 21 percent. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election between the two Democrats. The district's partisan composition, reinforced by the Prop. 50 redistricting map, produces consistent Democratic majorities in presidential and congressional voting. This primary outcome drives the overwhelming trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner, as only an unforeseen withdrawal, legal disqualification, or other structural change before November could alter the result.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$13,721Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California's 4th congressional district advanced incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones while eliminating all Republican candidates, including the leading Republican finisher at roughly 21 percent. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election between the two Democrats. The district's partisan composition, reinforced by the Prop. 50 redistricting map, produces consistent Democratic majorities in presidential and congressional voting. This primary outcome drives the overwhelming trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner, as only an unforeseen withdrawal, legal disqualification, or other structural change before November could alter the result.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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