Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-03 toward a Democratic lean, reflected in a D+6 Cook Partisan Voter Index and uniform Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Ami Bera advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Robb Tucker, supported by substantial fundraising and established name recognition in the reconfigured Sacramento-area and Sierra Nevada portions of the district. These structural factors underpin trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include late-breaking scandals involving the leading candidate, significant health developments, or a sharp national political reversal before the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-03 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-03 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$43,504 Vol.
$43,504 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
95%
Partido Republicano
3%
$43,504 Vol.
$43,504 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$25,885 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$17,619 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-03 toward a Democratic lean, reflected in a D+6 Cook Partisan Voter Index and uniform Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Ami Bera advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Robb Tucker, supported by substantial fundraising and established name recognition in the reconfigured Sacramento-area and Sierra Nevada portions of the district. These structural factors underpin trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include late-breaking scandals involving the leading candidate, significant health developments, or a sharp national political reversal before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$43,504Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-03 toward a Democratic lean, reflected in a D+6 Cook Partisan Voter Index and uniform Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Ami Bera advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Robb Tucker, supported by substantial fundraising and established name recognition in the reconfigured Sacramento-area and Sierra Nevada portions of the district. These structural factors underpin trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include late-breaking scandals involving the leading candidate, significant health developments, or a sharp national political reversal before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$43,504Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-03 toward a Democratic lean, reflected in a D+6 Cook Partisan Voter Index and uniform Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Ami Bera advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Robb Tucker, supported by substantial fundraising and established name recognition in the reconfigured Sacramento-area and Sierra Nevada portions of the district. These structural factors underpin trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include late-breaking scandals involving the leading candidate, significant health developments, or a sharp national political reversal before the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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