Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu holds a commanding position in California's 36th congressional district, where the seat's deep Democratic lean—reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and partisan voting index exceeding D+20—drives the market's strong consensus for a Democratic winner. Lieu's consistent primary and general election performance, including 68.7% of the vote in 2024, combined with established fundraising and name recognition, create substantial barriers for Republican challengers in the June 2 top-two primary and November general. Recent candidate filings show multiple Democrats competing in the primary but no viable Republican threat emerging to alter the trajectory. Scenarios that could realistically shift outcomes remain limited to late developments such as an incumbent health issue, major scandal, or unforeseen turnout surge, though historical patterns in similar safe districts suggest low probability of a party flip.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-36 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-36 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
54%
Partido Republicano
6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$5,296 Vol.
54%
Partido Republicano
$4,386 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu holds a commanding position in California's 36th congressional district, where the seat's deep Democratic lean—reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and partisan voting index exceeding D+20—drives the market's strong consensus for a Democratic winner. Lieu's consistent primary and general election performance, including 68.7% of the vote in 2024, combined with established fundraising and name recognition, create substantial barriers for Republican challengers in the June 2 top-two primary and November general. Recent candidate filings show multiple Democrats competing in the primary but no viable Republican threat emerging to alter the trajectory. Scenarios that could realistically shift outcomes remain limited to late developments such as an incumbent health issue, major scandal, or unforeseen turnout surge, though historical patterns in similar safe districts suggest low probability of a party flip.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$9,683Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu holds a commanding position in California's 36th congressional district, where the seat's deep Democratic lean—reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and partisan voting index exceeding D+20—drives the market's strong consensus for a Democratic winner. Lieu's consistent primary and general election performance, including 68.7% of the vote in 2024, combined with established fundraising and name recognition, create substantial barriers for Republican challengers in the June 2 top-two primary and November general. Recent candidate filings show multiple Democrats competing in the primary but no viable Republican threat emerging to alter the trajectory. Scenarios that could realistically shift outcomes remain limited to late developments such as an incumbent health issue, major scandal, or unforeseen turnout surge, though historical patterns in similar safe districts suggest low probability of a party flip.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$9,683Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu holds a commanding position in California's 36th congressional district, where the seat's deep Democratic lean—reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and partisan voting index exceeding D+20—drives the market's strong consensus for a Democratic winner. Lieu's consistent primary and general election performance, including 68.7% of the vote in 2024, combined with established fundraising and name recognition, create substantial barriers for Republican challengers in the June 2 top-two primary and November general. Recent candidate filings show multiple Democrats competing in the primary but no viable Republican threat emerging to alter the trajectory. Scenarios that could realistically shift outcomes remain limited to late developments such as an incumbent health issue, major scandal, or unforeseen turnout surge, though historical patterns in similar safe districts suggest low probability of a party flip.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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