California's 38th congressional district features a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in the district's D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index and heavy Democratic voter registration advantage following recent redistricting. Multiple Democratic candidates, including Hilda Solis, Monica Sanchez, and Erik Lutz, are competing in the June 2 top-two primary alongside Republican Pedro Antonio Casas, positioning Democrats to advance the top two finishers and secure the general election on November 3. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party aligns with the district's structural profile and historical voting patterns, where Republican candidates have faced consistent barriers. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or late developments, such as a major scandal affecting Democratic frontrunners or exceptional crossover voting not seen in comparable California districts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-38 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-38 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$58,611 Vol.
$58,611 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
95%
Partido Republicano
2%
$58,611 Vol.
$58,611 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$29,182 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$29,429 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 38th congressional district features a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in the district's D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index and heavy Democratic voter registration advantage following recent redistricting. Multiple Democratic candidates, including Hilda Solis, Monica Sanchez, and Erik Lutz, are competing in the June 2 top-two primary alongside Republican Pedro Antonio Casas, positioning Democrats to advance the top two finishers and secure the general election on November 3. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party aligns with the district's structural profile and historical voting patterns, where Republican candidates have faced consistent barriers. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or late developments, such as a major scandal affecting Democratic frontrunners or exceptional crossover voting not seen in comparable California districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$58,611Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 38th congressional district features a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in the district's D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index and heavy Democratic voter registration advantage following recent redistricting. Multiple Democratic candidates, including Hilda Solis, Monica Sanchez, and Erik Lutz, are competing in the June 2 top-two primary alongside Republican Pedro Antonio Casas, positioning Democrats to advance the top two finishers and secure the general election on November 3. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party aligns with the district's structural profile and historical voting patterns, where Republican candidates have faced consistent barriers. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or late developments, such as a major scandal affecting Democratic frontrunners or exceptional crossover voting not seen in comparable California districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$58,611Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 38th congressional district features a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in the district's D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index and heavy Democratic voter registration advantage following recent redistricting. Multiple Democratic candidates, including Hilda Solis, Monica Sanchez, and Erik Lutz, are competing in the June 2 top-two primary alongside Republican Pedro Antonio Casas, positioning Democrats to advance the top two finishers and secure the general election on November 3. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party aligns with the district's structural profile and historical voting patterns, where Republican candidates have faced consistent barriers. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or late developments, such as a major scandal affecting Democratic frontrunners or exceptional crossover voting not seen in comparable California districts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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