Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and resilient labor data showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Fed's March 18 decision held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with its dot plot projecting a median 3.4% by year-end 2026, signaling limited easing amid persistent price pressures. A 13.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut persists if upcoming April CPI (due May 12) or jobs reports soften, while hike odds below 5% underscore balanced growth without overheating risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin cambio 81%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 13%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 3.9%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos 2.5%
$3,681,814 Vol.
$3,681,814 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
2%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
13%
Sin cambio
81%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Sin cambio 81%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 13%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 3.9%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos 2.5%
$3,681,814 Vol.
$3,681,814 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$165,705 Vol.
2%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
$114,782 Vol.
13%
Sin cambio
$182,962 Vol.
81%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$3,022,073 Vol.
4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$196,303 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and resilient labor data showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Fed's March 18 decision held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with its dot plot projecting a median 3.4% by year-end 2026, signaling limited easing amid persistent price pressures. A 13.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut persists if upcoming April CPI (due May 12) or jobs reports soften, while hike odds below 5% underscore balanced growth without overheating risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$3,681,814Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and resilient labor data showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Fed's March 18 decision held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with its dot plot projecting a median 3.4% by year-end 2026, signaling limited easing amid persistent price pressures. A 13.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut persists if upcoming April CPI (due May 12) or jobs reports soften, while hike odds below 5% underscore balanced growth without overheating risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$3,681,814Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and resilient labor data showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Fed's March 18 decision held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with its dot plot projecting a median 3.4% by year-end 2026, signaling limited easing amid persistent price pressures. A 13.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut persists if upcoming April CPI (due May 12) or jobs reports soften, while hike odds below 5% underscore balanced growth without overheating risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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