Recent U.S. inflation data, with the May 2026 CPI rising 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—driven largely by a sharp energy price surge amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market holding unemployment steady at 4.3%, has reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus at 93.5% for no change, consistent with the March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections showing only modest easing ahead and recent central bank communications emphasizing data dependence amid elevated price pressures. A sharp reversal in energy costs, softer-than-expected June employment or inflation figures, or dovish signals from policymakers could introduce modest downside risk to the no-change outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin cambio 94%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos 2.3%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 2.3%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 1.7%
$10,048,018 Vol.
$10,048,018 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
2%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
2%
Sin cambio
94%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
2%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambio 94%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos 2.3%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 2.3%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 1.7%
$10,048,018 Vol.
$10,048,018 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$1,504,206 Vol.
2%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
$1,116,811 Vol.
2%
Sin cambio
$1,697,834 Vol.
94%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$4,153,254 Vol.
2%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$1,584,599 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, with the May 2026 CPI rising 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—driven largely by a sharp energy price surge amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market holding unemployment steady at 4.3%, has reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus at 93.5% for no change, consistent with the March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections showing only modest easing ahead and recent central bank communications emphasizing data dependence amid elevated price pressures. A sharp reversal in energy costs, softer-than-expected June employment or inflation figures, or dovish signals from policymakers could introduce modest downside risk to the no-change outcome.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$10,048,018Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, with the May 2026 CPI rising 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—driven largely by a sharp energy price surge amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market holding unemployment steady at 4.3%, has reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus at 93.5% for no change, consistent with the March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections showing only modest easing ahead and recent central bank communications emphasizing data dependence amid elevated price pressures. A sharp reversal in energy costs, softer-than-expected June employment or inflation figures, or dovish signals from policymakers could introduce modest downside risk to the no-change outcome.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$10,048,018Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. inflation data, with the May 2026 CPI rising 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—driven largely by a sharp energy price surge amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market holding unemployment steady at 4.3%, has reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus at 93.5% for no change, consistent with the March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections showing only modest easing ahead and recent central bank communications emphasizing data dependence amid elevated price pressures. A sharp reversal in energy costs, softer-than-expected June employment or inflation figures, or dovish signals from policymakers could introduce modest downside risk to the no-change outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes