**Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 72–77°F for Chicago’s August 2 high, with 74–75°F (24%) and 76–77°F (23.5%) edging out 72–73°F (22%).** This reflects trader consensus on a below-normal day driven by a cooler-than-average air mass advecting into the region. National Weather Service normals place the early-August high near 84°F, yet long-range guidance and recent model consensus point to mid-70s readings. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any frontal boundary or lake-breeze circulation off Lake Michigan, which can suppress afternoon warming by several degrees through marine-layer advection and enhanced cloud cover. Forecast uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, dew-point trends, and potential diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies creates the narrow spread among the top three bins, while the low probability assigned to 80°F+ outcomes indicates limited confidence in significant warm-sector return or stronger insolation. Upcoming National Weather Service forecast updates and morning model runs will provide the primary catalysts for any shifts in these closely matched probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Chicago el 2 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Chicago el 2 de agosto?
76-77°F 42%
74-75°F 35%
72-73°F 16%
78-79°F 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 ago 2026
65°F o menos
2%
66-67°F
2%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
4%
72-73°F
16%
74-75°F
35%
76-77°F
42%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
1%
84°F o más
1%
76-77°F 42%
74-75°F 35%
72-73°F 16%
78-79°F 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 ago 2026
65°F o menos
$5 Vol.
2%
66-67°F
$21 Vol.
2%
68-69°F
$21 Vol.
3%
70-71°F
$5 Vol.
4%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
16%
74-75°F
$25 Vol.
35%
76-77°F
$17 Vol.
42%
78-79°F
$36 Vol.
5%
80-81°F
$27 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$17 Vol.
1%
84°F o más
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 72–77°F for Chicago’s August 2 high, with 74–75°F (24%) and 76–77°F (23.5%) edging out 72–73°F (22%).** This reflects trader consensus on a below-normal day driven by a cooler-than-average air mass advecting into the region.
National Weather Service normals place the early-August high near 84°F, yet long-range guidance and recent model consensus point to mid-70s readings. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any frontal boundary or lake-breeze circulation off Lake Michigan, which can suppress afternoon warming by several degrees through marine-layer advection and enhanced cloud cover. Forecast uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, dew-point trends, and potential diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies creates the narrow spread among the top three bins, while the low probability assigned to 80°F+ outcomes indicates limited confidence in significant warm-sector return or stronger insolation.
Upcoming National Weather Service forecast updates and morning model runs will provide the primary catalysts for any shifts in these closely matched probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volumen
$175Fecha de finalización
2 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 72–77°F for Chicago’s August 2 high, with 74–75°F (24%) and 76–77°F (23.5%) edging out 72–73°F (22%).** This reflects trader consensus on a below-normal day driven by a cooler-than-average air mass advecting into the region.
National Weather Service normals place the early-August high near 84°F, yet long-range guidance and recent model consensus point to mid-70s readings. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any frontal boundary or lake-breeze circulation off Lake Michigan, which can suppress afternoon warming by several degrees through marine-layer advection and enhanced cloud cover. Forecast uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, dew-point trends, and potential diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies creates the narrow spread among the top three bins, while the low probability assigned to 80°F+ outcomes indicates limited confidence in significant warm-sector return or stronger insolation.
Upcoming National Weather Service forecast updates and morning model runs will provide the primary catalysts for any shifts in these closely matched probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$175Fecha de finalización
2 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 72–77°F for Chicago’s August 2 high, with 74–75°F (24%) and 76–77°F (23.5%) edging out 72–73°F (22%).** This reflects trader consensus on a below-normal day driven by a cooler-than-average air mass advecting into the region. National Weather Service normals place the early-August high near 84°F, yet long-range guidance and recent model consensus point to mid-70s readings. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any frontal boundary or lake-breeze circulation off Lake Michigan, which can suppress afternoon warming by several degrees through marine-layer advection and enhanced cloud cover. Forecast uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, dew-point trends, and potential diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies creates the narrow spread among the top three bins, while the low probability assigned to 80°F+ outcomes indicates limited confidence in significant warm-sector return or stronger insolation. Upcoming National Weather Service forecast updates and morning model runs will provide the primary catalysts for any shifts in these closely matched probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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