Recent National Weather Service point forecasts for downtown San Francisco place the August 2 high near 78°F under sunny skies and light onshore flow, consistent with a gradual warming trend driven by persistent upper-level ridging that has kept temperatures slightly above the seasonal 68–72°F average through the weekend. This pattern favors 76–79°F outcomes that together command over half the market, while the tight clustering around 74–75°F versus 78–79°F reflects residual model spread in the strength and timing of any marine-layer intrusion or afternoon sea-breeze enhancement that can shave several degrees from the daily maximum. Traders weigh the ridging’s staying power against San Francisco’s characteristic microclimate variability, where even modest shifts in wind or low-level moisture can move the observed high across the 74–80°F window without altering the broader above-average regime.