Numerical weather prediction ensembles currently position 27–28°C as the most probable daily maximum for Istanbul on August 22 under typical late-summer Mediterranean conditions. Sea-surface temperatures near 25°C and moderate northerly flow limit further warming, while the absence of strong downslope or föhn effects keeps the upper tail narrow. Recent model runs show high consistency across the 26–29°C window, aligning with climatological baselines where August highs average 28–30°C. Trader consensus, reflected in the combined 79.5% implied probability for 27–28°C, incorporates this forecast stability while assigning low odds to 30°C or higher given the narrow uncertainty range and stable synoptic pattern ahead of peak heating. Updated guidance from agencies such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service will determine any late adjustments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Estambul el 22 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Estambul el 22 de agosto?
27°C 47%
28°C 29%
26°C 24%
30°C 17%
NUEVO
NUEVO
22 ago 2026
23°C or below
2%
24°C
4%
25°C
11%
26°C
24%
27°C
47%
28°C
29%
29°C
14%
30°C
17%
31°C
3%
32°C
7%
33°C or higher
3%
27°C 47%
28°C 29%
26°C 24%
30°C 17%
NUEVO
NUEVO
22 ago 2026
23°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
24°C
$5 Vol.
4%
25°C
$0 Vol.
11%
26°C
$0 Vol.
24%
27°C
$0 Vol.
47%
28°C
$0 Vol.
29%
29°C
$0 Vol.
14%
30°C
$22 Vol.
17%
31°C
$27 Vol.
3%
32°C
$5 Vol.
7%
33°C or higher
$5 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Numerical weather prediction ensembles currently position 27–28°C as the most probable daily maximum for Istanbul on August 22 under typical late-summer Mediterranean conditions. Sea-surface temperatures near 25°C and moderate northerly flow limit further warming, while the absence of strong downslope or föhn effects keeps the upper tail narrow. Recent model runs show high consistency across the 26–29°C window, aligning with climatological baselines where August highs average 28–30°C. Trader consensus, reflected in the combined 79.5% implied probability for 27–28°C, incorporates this forecast stability while assigning low odds to 30°C or higher given the narrow uncertainty range and stable synoptic pattern ahead of peak heating. Updated guidance from agencies such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service will determine any late adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volumen
$69Fecha de finalización
22 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Numerical weather prediction ensembles currently position 27–28°C as the most probable daily maximum for Istanbul on August 22 under typical late-summer Mediterranean conditions. Sea-surface temperatures near 25°C and moderate northerly flow limit further warming, while the absence of strong downslope or föhn effects keeps the upper tail narrow. Recent model runs show high consistency across the 26–29°C window, aligning with climatological baselines where August highs average 28–30°C. Trader consensus, reflected in the combined 79.5% implied probability for 27–28°C, incorporates this forecast stability while assigning low odds to 30°C or higher given the narrow uncertainty range and stable synoptic pattern ahead of peak heating. Updated guidance from agencies such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service will determine any late adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$69Fecha de finalización
22 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Numerical weather prediction ensembles currently position 27–28°C as the most probable daily maximum for Istanbul on August 22 under typical late-summer Mediterranean conditions. Sea-surface temperatures near 25°C and moderate northerly flow limit further warming, while the absence of strong downslope or föhn effects keeps the upper tail narrow. Recent model runs show high consistency across the 26–29°C window, aligning with climatological baselines where August highs average 28–30°C. Trader consensus, reflected in the combined 79.5% implied probability for 27–28°C, incorporates this forecast stability while assigning low odds to 30°C or higher given the narrow uncertainty range and stable synoptic pattern ahead of peak heating. Updated guidance from agencies such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service will determine any late adjustments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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