Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs position 21°C as the modal outcome for Warsaw’s August 22 maximum, reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge and modest southerly flow advecting air masses with limited diurnal heating. Probabilistic spreads cluster tightly around 20–22°C, consistent with climatological August baselines near 23°C but tempered by recent model consensus on weaker insolation and possible boundary-layer moisture. Shorter-range updates from the Polish Institute of Meteorology show minimal day-to-day shifts, keeping implied probabilities anchored while highlighting resolution sensitivity to exact timing of any weak frontal passage. Traders monitor the next 00Z and 12Z cycles for any eastward shift in the ridge that could lift maxima by 1–2°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Varsovia el 22 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Varsovia el 22 de agosto?
21°C 36%
22°C 24%
20°C 18%
23°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
22 ago 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
6%
20°C
18%
21°C
36%
22°C
24%
23°C
8%
24°C
6%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
<1%
21°C 36%
22°C 24%
20°C 18%
23°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
22 ago 2026
16°C or below
$372 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$216 Vol.
1%
18°C
$69 Vol.
2%
19°C
$10 Vol.
6%
20°C
$78 Vol.
18%
21°C
$11 Vol.
36%
22°C
$52 Vol.
24%
23°C
$0 Vol.
8%
24°C
$20 Vol.
6%
25°C
$157 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$360 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs position 21°C as the modal outcome for Warsaw’s August 22 maximum, reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge and modest southerly flow advecting air masses with limited diurnal heating. Probabilistic spreads cluster tightly around 20–22°C, consistent with climatological August baselines near 23°C but tempered by recent model consensus on weaker insolation and possible boundary-layer moisture. Shorter-range updates from the Polish Institute of Meteorology show minimal day-to-day shifts, keeping implied probabilities anchored while highlighting resolution sensitivity to exact timing of any weak frontal passage. Traders monitor the next 00Z and 12Z cycles for any eastward shift in the ridge that could lift maxima by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$1,345Fecha de finalización
22 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs position 21°C as the modal outcome for Warsaw’s August 22 maximum, reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge and modest southerly flow advecting air masses with limited diurnal heating. Probabilistic spreads cluster tightly around 20–22°C, consistent with climatological August baselines near 23°C but tempered by recent model consensus on weaker insolation and possible boundary-layer moisture. Shorter-range updates from the Polish Institute of Meteorology show minimal day-to-day shifts, keeping implied probabilities anchored while highlighting resolution sensitivity to exact timing of any weak frontal passage. Traders monitor the next 00Z and 12Z cycles for any eastward shift in the ridge that could lift maxima by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,345Fecha de finalización
22 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs position 21°C as the modal outcome for Warsaw’s August 22 maximum, reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge and modest southerly flow advecting air masses with limited diurnal heating. Probabilistic spreads cluster tightly around 20–22°C, consistent with climatological August baselines near 23°C but tempered by recent model consensus on weaker insolation and possible boundary-layer moisture. Shorter-range updates from the Polish Institute of Meteorology show minimal day-to-day shifts, keeping implied probabilities anchored while highlighting resolution sensitivity to exact timing of any weak frontal passage. Traders monitor the next 00Z and 12Z cycles for any eastward shift in the ridge that could lift maxima by 1–2°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes