**Trader consensus on the Madrid September 3 high temperature centers on 38°C (45.5% implied probability) and 39°C (40.5%), reflecting tight model spreads in current forecasts.** Persistent high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula drives clear skies, subsidence warming, and light southerly winds, sustaining late-summer heat in Madrid’s continental climate. Official runs from sources like GFS and regional models project afternoon maxima of 37–39°C under minimal cloud cover and low humidity, with subtle differences in peak timing or boundary-layer mixing creating the narrow split between the two leading outcomes. Historical September extremes in Madrid often reach the mid-30s°C, providing context for this elevated but not record-threatening pattern. Updated model guidance and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift probabilities before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 3 de septiembre?
¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 3 de septiembre?
38°C 46%
39°C 38%
37°C 11%
40°C 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 sep 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
3%
37°C
11%
38°C
46%
39°C
38%
40°C
6%
41°C
2%
42°C
1%
43°C or higher
<1%
38°C 46%
39°C 38%
37°C 11%
40°C 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 sep 2026
33°C or below
$73 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$98 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$53 Vol.
1%
36°C
$149 Vol.
3%
37°C
$126 Vol.
11%
38°C
$268 Vol.
46%
39°C
$243 Vol.
38%
40°C
$71 Vol.
6%
41°C
$68 Vol.
2%
42°C
$77 Vol.
1%
43°C or higher
$68 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on the Madrid September 3 high temperature centers on 38°C (45.5% implied probability) and 39°C (40.5%), reflecting tight model spreads in current forecasts.** Persistent high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula drives clear skies, subsidence warming, and light southerly winds, sustaining late-summer heat in Madrid’s continental climate. Official runs from sources like GFS and regional models project afternoon maxima of 37–39°C under minimal cloud cover and low humidity, with subtle differences in peak timing or boundary-layer mixing creating the narrow split between the two leading outcomes. Historical September extremes in Madrid often reach the mid-30s°C, providing context for this elevated but not record-threatening pattern. Updated model guidance and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$1,294Fecha de finalización
3 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on the Madrid September 3 high temperature centers on 38°C (45.5% implied probability) and 39°C (40.5%), reflecting tight model spreads in current forecasts.** Persistent high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula drives clear skies, subsidence warming, and light southerly winds, sustaining late-summer heat in Madrid’s continental climate. Official runs from sources like GFS and regional models project afternoon maxima of 37–39°C under minimal cloud cover and low humidity, with subtle differences in peak timing or boundary-layer mixing creating the narrow split between the two leading outcomes. Historical September extremes in Madrid often reach the mid-30s°C, providing context for this elevated but not record-threatening pattern. Updated model guidance and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,294Fecha de finalización
3 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the Madrid September 3 high temperature centers on 38°C (45.5% implied probability) and 39°C (40.5%), reflecting tight model spreads in current forecasts.** Persistent high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula drives clear skies, subsidence warming, and light southerly winds, sustaining late-summer heat in Madrid’s continental climate. Official runs from sources like GFS and regional models project afternoon maxima of 37–39°C under minimal cloud cover and low humidity, with subtle differences in peak timing or boundary-layer mixing creating the narrow split between the two leading outcomes. Historical September extremes in Madrid often reach the mid-30s°C, providing context for this elevated but not record-threatening pattern. Updated model guidance and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift probabilities before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes