Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race among 80-85°F outcomes for Miami's highest temperature on April 6, with 82-83°F leading at 35.5% implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service guidance forecasting a peak near 82°F amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Florida. Recent 24-hour model updates from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles shifted earlier cooler biases (78-81°F from increased Atlantic moisture) toward mid-82s as easterly winds (10-15 mph) promote diurnal heating while limiting widespread showers. Key differentiators include sea breeze timing—early onset caps at 80-81°F via convergence clouding, while delayed favors 84-85°F—and low-level humidity; drier profiles boost upper bins per historical April analogs averaging 82°F at Miami International Airport. New 12z runs expected April 4 could refine this 2-3°F spread.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Miami on April 6?
Highest temperature in Miami on April 6?
82-83°F 36%
84-85°F 31%
80-81°F 25%
86-87°F 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 abr 2026
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
36%
84-85°F
31%
86-87°F
11%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
1%
92°F or higher
1%
82-83°F 36%
84-85°F 31%
80-81°F 25%
86-87°F 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 abr 2026
73°F or below
$370 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$139 Vol.
2%
76-77°F
$96 Vol.
3%
78-79°F
$155 Vol.
5%
80-81°F
$286 Vol.
25%
82-83°F
$215 Vol.
36%
84-85°F
$241 Vol.
31%
86-87°F
$197 Vol.
11%
88-89°F
$373 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$346 Vol.
1%
92°F or higher
$357 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race among 80-85°F outcomes for Miami's highest temperature on April 6, with 82-83°F leading at 35.5% implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service guidance forecasting a peak near 82°F amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Florida. Recent 24-hour model updates from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles shifted earlier cooler biases (78-81°F from increased Atlantic moisture) toward mid-82s as easterly winds (10-15 mph) promote diurnal heating while limiting widespread showers. Key differentiators include sea breeze timing—early onset caps at 80-81°F via convergence clouding, while delayed favors 84-85°F—and low-level humidity; drier profiles boost upper bins per historical April analogs averaging 82°F at Miami International Airport. New 12z runs expected April 4 could refine this 2-3°F spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volumen
$2,760Fecha de finalización
6 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race among 80-85°F outcomes for Miami's highest temperature on April 6, with 82-83°F leading at 35.5% implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service guidance forecasting a peak near 82°F amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Florida. Recent 24-hour model updates from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles shifted earlier cooler biases (78-81°F from increased Atlantic moisture) toward mid-82s as easterly winds (10-15 mph) promote diurnal heating while limiting widespread showers. Key differentiators include sea breeze timing—early onset caps at 80-81°F via convergence clouding, while delayed favors 84-85°F—and low-level humidity; drier profiles boost upper bins per historical April analogs averaging 82°F at Miami International Airport. New 12z runs expected April 4 could refine this 2-3°F spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$2,760Fecha de finalización
6 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race among 80-85°F outcomes for Miami's highest temperature on April 6, with 82-83°F leading at 35.5% implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service guidance forecasting a peak near 82°F amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Florida. Recent 24-hour model updates from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles shifted earlier cooler biases (78-81°F from increased Atlantic moisture) toward mid-82s as easterly winds (10-15 mph) promote diurnal heating while limiting widespread showers. Key differentiators include sea breeze timing—early onset caps at 80-81°F via convergence clouding, while delayed favors 84-85°F—and low-level humidity; drier profiles boost upper bins per historical April analogs averaging 82°F at Miami International Airport. New 12z runs expected April 4 could refine this 2-3°F spread.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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