Current ensemble forecasts from major models, including GFS and ECMWF, converge on a daytime high of 14–15°C in Warsaw on September 21 under persistent cloud cover, light rain or showers, and moderate westerly winds of 15–25 km/h. These conditions, driven by an advancing frontal system, limit solar heating and keep temperatures well below the late-September climatological average of roughly 18–20°C. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with most guidance holding the peak in the 13–16°C range and only isolated warmer solutions near 17°C if breaks in cloud cover develop. Trader-implied odds reflect this consensus, with 15°C and 14°C as clear leaders while probabilities for 16°C or higher remain secondary pending any final pre-event adjustments to steering flow or precipitation timing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Varsovia el 21 de septiembre?
¿La temperatura más alta en Varsovia el 21 de septiembre?
15°C 45%
16°C 24%
14°C 22%
13°C 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
21 sep 2026
10°C o menos
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
5%
14°C
22%
15°C
45%
16°C
24%
17°C
4%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C o más
<1%
15°C 45%
16°C 24%
14°C 22%
13°C 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
21 sep 2026
10°C o menos
$267 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$122 Vol.
1%
12°C
$0 Vol.
2%
13°C
$199 Vol.
5%
14°C
$3,049 Vol.
22%
15°C
$813 Vol.
45%
16°C
$3,061 Vol.
24%
17°C
$218 Vol.
4%
18°C
$200 Vol.
2%
19°C
$105 Vol.
1%
20°C o más
$188 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models, including GFS and ECMWF, converge on a daytime high of 14–15°C in Warsaw on September 21 under persistent cloud cover, light rain or showers, and moderate westerly winds of 15–25 km/h. These conditions, driven by an advancing frontal system, limit solar heating and keep temperatures well below the late-September climatological average of roughly 18–20°C. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with most guidance holding the peak in the 13–16°C range and only isolated warmer solutions near 17°C if breaks in cloud cover develop. Trader-implied odds reflect this consensus, with 15°C and 14°C as clear leaders while probabilities for 16°C or higher remain secondary pending any final pre-event adjustments to steering flow or precipitation timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$8,221Fecha de finalización
21 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models, including GFS and ECMWF, converge on a daytime high of 14–15°C in Warsaw on September 21 under persistent cloud cover, light rain or showers, and moderate westerly winds of 15–25 km/h. These conditions, driven by an advancing frontal system, limit solar heating and keep temperatures well below the late-September climatological average of roughly 18–20°C. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with most guidance holding the peak in the 13–16°C range and only isolated warmer solutions near 17°C if breaks in cloud cover develop. Trader-implied odds reflect this consensus, with 15°C and 14°C as clear leaders while probabilities for 16°C or higher remain secondary pending any final pre-event adjustments to steering flow or precipitation timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$8,221Fecha de finalización
21 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from major models, including GFS and ECMWF, converge on a daytime high of 14–15°C in Warsaw on September 21 under persistent cloud cover, light rain or showers, and moderate westerly winds of 15–25 km/h. These conditions, driven by an advancing frontal system, limit solar heating and keep temperatures well below the late-September climatological average of roughly 18–20°C. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with most guidance holding the peak in the 13–16°C range and only isolated warmer solutions near 17°C if breaks in cloud cover develop. Trader-implied odds reflect this consensus, with 15°C and 14°C as clear leaders while probabilities for 16°C or higher remain secondary pending any final pre-event adjustments to steering flow or precipitation timing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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