Favorable environmental conditions, including warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear across the western Pacific, are driving model consensus for rapid intensification of Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at around 40 knots. Multiple guidance systems, including HAFS, COAMPS-TC, and ensemble members, project a 65-knot or greater increase over the next 72 hours, supporting peak intensities near 125 knots. This positions Very Strong Typhoon as the leading market outcome at 50%, reflecting expected central pressures around 940-955 hPa. Some higher-end solutions reach Violent Typhoon thresholds above 130 knots, while cooler waters later in the period limit further gains and keep lower categories at reduced probabilities. Official agencies like JMA anticipate very strong status by late August.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué tan fuerte será la tormenta tropical Saudel?
¿Qué tan fuerte será la tormenta tropical Saudel?
Tifón Muy Fuerte 49%
Tifón 26%
Tifón Violento 17%
Tormenta Tropical 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
Tormenta Tropical
6%
Tormenta Tropical Severa
6%
Tifón
26%
Tifón Muy Fuerte
49%
Tifón Violento
17%
Tifón Muy Fuerte 49%
Tifón 26%
Tifón Violento 17%
Tormenta Tropical 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
Tormenta Tropical
$20 Vol.
6%
Tormenta Tropical Severa
$19 Vol.
6%
Tifón
$37 Vol.
26%
Tifón Muy Fuerte
$35 Vol.
49%
Tifón Violento
$96 Vol.
17%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Favorable environmental conditions, including warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear across the western Pacific, are driving model consensus for rapid intensification of Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at around 40 knots. Multiple guidance systems, including HAFS, COAMPS-TC, and ensemble members, project a 65-knot or greater increase over the next 72 hours, supporting peak intensities near 125 knots. This positions Very Strong Typhoon as the leading market outcome at 50%, reflecting expected central pressures around 940-955 hPa. Some higher-end solutions reach Violent Typhoon thresholds above 130 knots, while cooler waters later in the period limit further gains and keep lower categories at reduced probabilities. Official agencies like JMA anticipate very strong status by late August.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
Volumen
$207Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Favorable environmental conditions, including warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear across the western Pacific, are driving model consensus for rapid intensification of Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at around 40 knots. Multiple guidance systems, including HAFS, COAMPS-TC, and ensemble members, project a 65-knot or greater increase over the next 72 hours, supporting peak intensities near 125 knots. This positions Very Strong Typhoon as the leading market outcome at 50%, reflecting expected central pressures around 940-955 hPa. Some higher-end solutions reach Violent Typhoon thresholds above 130 knots, while cooler waters later in the period limit further gains and keep lower categories at reduced probabilities. Official agencies like JMA anticipate very strong status by late August.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Volumen
$207Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...Favorable environmental conditions, including warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear across the western Pacific, are driving model consensus for rapid intensification of Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at around 40 knots. Multiple guidance systems, including HAFS, COAMPS-TC, and ensemble members, project a 65-knot or greater increase over the next 72 hours, supporting peak intensities near 125 knots. This positions Very Strong Typhoon as the leading market outcome at 50%, reflecting expected central pressures around 940-955 hPa. Some higher-end solutions reach Violent Typhoon thresholds above 130 knots, while cooler waters later in the period limit further gains and keep lower categories at reduced probabilities. Official agencies like JMA anticipate very strong status by late August.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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