Traders assign a 99% implied probability to a 25°C low in Guangzhou on September 12, 2026, driven by consistent official forecasts and real-time observations placing overnight minima at 24–26°C under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Historical data show an average September 12 low of 24.5°C, with recent years rarely deviating more than 1–2°C absent strong cold fronts or typhoon influences, which are absent in current model runs from agencies tracking regional patterns. Elevated humidity and light northeasterly winds support gradual radiative cooling to this range without extremes. Only an unforecasted surge or station-specific microclimate anomaly would shift the recorded minimum outside 24–26°C, a low-likelihood outcome given model consensus and ongoing monitoring.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Guangzhou el 12 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Guangzhou el 12 de septiembre?
25°C 100.0%
18°C o menos <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$700 Vol.
$700 Vol.
12 sep 2026
18°C o menos
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Sí
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C o más
No
25°C 100.0%
18°C o menos <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$700 Vol.
$700 Vol.
12 sep 2026
18°C o menos
$63 Vol.
No
19°C
$45 Vol.
No
20°C
$15 Vol.
No
21°C
$33 Vol.
No
22°C
$87 Vol.
No
23°C
$93 Vol.
No
24°C
$97 Vol.
No
25°C
$166 Vol.
Sí
26°C
$15 Vol.
No
27°C
$30 Vol.
No
28°C o más
$56 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign a 99% implied probability to a 25°C low in Guangzhou on September 12, 2026, driven by consistent official forecasts and real-time observations placing overnight minima at 24–26°C under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Historical data show an average September 12 low of 24.5°C, with recent years rarely deviating more than 1–2°C absent strong cold fronts or typhoon influences, which are absent in current model runs from agencies tracking regional patterns. Elevated humidity and light northeasterly winds support gradual radiative cooling to this range without extremes. Only an unforecasted surge or station-specific microclimate anomaly would shift the recorded minimum outside 24–26°C, a low-likelihood outcome given model consensus and ongoing monitoring.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volumen
$700Fecha de finalización
12 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign a 99% implied probability to a 25°C low in Guangzhou on September 12, 2026, driven by consistent official forecasts and real-time observations placing overnight minima at 24–26°C under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Historical data show an average September 12 low of 24.5°C, with recent years rarely deviating more than 1–2°C absent strong cold fronts or typhoon influences, which are absent in current model runs from agencies tracking regional patterns. Elevated humidity and light northeasterly winds support gradual radiative cooling to this range without extremes. Only an unforecasted surge or station-specific microclimate anomaly would shift the recorded minimum outside 24–26°C, a low-likelihood outcome given model consensus and ongoing monitoring.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$700Fecha de finalización
12 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Traders assign a 99% implied probability to a 25°C low in Guangzhou on September 12, 2026, driven by consistent official forecasts and real-time observations placing overnight minima at 24–26°C under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Historical data show an average September 12 low of 24.5°C, with recent years rarely deviating more than 1–2°C absent strong cold fronts or typhoon influences, which are absent in current model runs from agencies tracking regional patterns. Elevated humidity and light northeasterly winds support gradual radiative cooling to this range without extremes. Only an unforecasted surge or station-specific microclimate anomaly would shift the recorded minimum outside 24–26°C, a low-likelihood outcome given model consensus and ongoing monitoring.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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