Recent model consensus from sources including GFS, ECMWF, and national meteorological services points to overnight lows in Istanbul on September 24 clustering between 13–16°C under clearing skies following heavy rain on the 23rd. Radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover and lighter winds will drive the minimum, but residual moisture and moderating sea-surface temperatures limit the potential for sharp drops below 10°C. At the same time, daytime heating to near 20–22°C reduces the chance of an unusually warm night. This genuine forecast spread—arising from small differences in boundary-layer mixing and timing of cloud dissipation—explains the near-even market split between sub-8°C and 17°C+ outcomes, with specific bins around 11–14°C reflecting the central tendency of current guidance. Updated model runs tonight will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Estambul el 24 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Estambul el 24 de septiembre?
7°C o menos 45%
17°C o más 44%
8°C 40%
9°C 40%
NUEVO
NUEVO
24 sep 2026
7°C o menos
45%
8°C
40%
9°C
40%
10°C
21%
11°C
23%
12°C
40%
13°C
40%
14°C
19%
15°C
18%
16°C
18%
17°C o más
44%
7°C o menos 45%
17°C o más 44%
8°C 40%
9°C 40%
NUEVO
NUEVO
24 sep 2026
7°C o menos
$0 Vol.
45%
8°C
$0 Vol.
40%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$6 Vol.
21%
11°C
$0 Vol.
23%
12°C
$0 Vol.
40%
13°C
$0 Vol.
40%
14°C
$0 Vol.
19%
15°C
$0 Vol.
18%
16°C
$0 Vol.
18%
17°C o más
$0 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including GFS, ECMWF, and national meteorological services points to overnight lows in Istanbul on September 24 clustering between 13–16°C under clearing skies following heavy rain on the 23rd. Radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover and lighter winds will drive the minimum, but residual moisture and moderating sea-surface temperatures limit the potential for sharp drops below 10°C. At the same time, daytime heating to near 20–22°C reduces the chance of an unusually warm night. This genuine forecast spread—arising from small differences in boundary-layer mixing and timing of cloud dissipation—explains the near-even market split between sub-8°C and 17°C+ outcomes, with specific bins around 11–14°C reflecting the central tendency of current guidance. Updated model runs tonight will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volumen
$6Fecha de finalización
24 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including GFS, ECMWF, and national meteorological services points to overnight lows in Istanbul on September 24 clustering between 13–16°C under clearing skies following heavy rain on the 23rd. Radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover and lighter winds will drive the minimum, but residual moisture and moderating sea-surface temperatures limit the potential for sharp drops below 10°C. At the same time, daytime heating to near 20–22°C reduces the chance of an unusually warm night. This genuine forecast spread—arising from small differences in boundary-layer mixing and timing of cloud dissipation—explains the near-even market split between sub-8°C and 17°C+ outcomes, with specific bins around 11–14°C reflecting the central tendency of current guidance. Updated model runs tonight will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$6Fecha de finalización
24 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources including GFS, ECMWF, and national meteorological services points to overnight lows in Istanbul on September 24 clustering between 13–16°C under clearing skies following heavy rain on the 23rd. Radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover and lighter winds will drive the minimum, but residual moisture and moderating sea-surface temperatures limit the potential for sharp drops below 10°C. At the same time, daytime heating to near 20–22°C reduces the chance of an unusually warm night. This genuine forecast spread—arising from small differences in boundary-layer mixing and timing of cloud dissipation—explains the near-even market split between sub-8°C and 17°C+ outcomes, with specific bins around 11–14°C reflecting the central tendency of current guidance. Updated model runs tonight will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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