Recent official forecasts from Jinan meteorological authorities and global models indicate the September 4 low will likely fall between 16–20°C under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow, driven by radiative cooling beneath a stable high-pressure ridge. This positions the market’s near-even split between 22°C-or-higher and 12°C-or-below outcomes around uncertainty in overnight minimums, which depend on exact cloud cover, wind speed, and urban heat-island effects across the city versus surrounding counties. Historical September climatology for Jinan shows typical early-month lows near 18–21°C, providing context for why traders see value in the 15–18°C range while awaiting the final 24-hour model runs and local observations that will determine resolution.