**Current forecasts from AEMET and major models indicate a minimum temperature near 21–22°C for Madrid on September 4, 2026, under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds.** This reflects a warm air mass with daytime highs of 36–38°C, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling despite calm conditions that otherwise favor temperature drops. Historical September 4 averages sit at 17.3°C, but the ongoing heatwave pattern elevates the floor. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 20–25°C bins near 44%, with 17°C or below only marginally ahead at 50%, highlighting uncertainty in exact overnight cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or minor model spread in steering flow. Traders appear weighting the risk of slightly stronger cooling if winds drop further or if high clouds thin more than expected, while resolution hinges on official AEMET station readings. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Madrid el 4 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Madrid el 4 de septiembre?
17°C o menos 99%
18°C 88%
19°C 88%
25°C 88%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 sep 2026
17°C o menos
99%
18°C
88%
19°C
88%
20°C
87%
21°C
87%
22°C
87%
23°C
87%
24°C
87%
25°C
88%
26°C
2%
27°C o más
49%
17°C o menos 99%
18°C 88%
19°C 88%
25°C 88%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 sep 2026
17°C o menos
$0 Vol.
99%
18°C
$0 Vol.
88%
19°C
$0 Vol.
88%
20°C
$0 Vol.
87%
21°C
$0 Vol.
87%
22°C
$0 Vol.
87%
23°C
$0 Vol.
87%
24°C
$0 Vol.
87%
25°C
$0 Vol.
88%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C o más
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from AEMET and major models indicate a minimum temperature near 21–22°C for Madrid on September 4, 2026, under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds.** This reflects a warm air mass with daytime highs of 36–38°C, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling despite calm conditions that otherwise favor temperature drops. Historical September 4 averages sit at 17.3°C, but the ongoing heatwave pattern elevates the floor. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 20–25°C bins near 44%, with 17°C or below only marginally ahead at 50%, highlighting uncertainty in exact overnight cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or minor model spread in steering flow. Traders appear weighting the risk of slightly stronger cooling if winds drop further or if high clouds thin more than expected, while resolution hinges on official AEMET station readings. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
4 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from AEMET and major models indicate a minimum temperature near 21–22°C for Madrid on September 4, 2026, under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds.** This reflects a warm air mass with daytime highs of 36–38°C, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling despite calm conditions that otherwise favor temperature drops. Historical September 4 averages sit at 17.3°C, but the ongoing heatwave pattern elevates the floor. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 20–25°C bins near 44%, with 17°C or below only marginally ahead at 50%, highlighting uncertainty in exact overnight cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or minor model spread in steering flow. Traders appear weighting the risk of slightly stronger cooling if winds drop further or if high clouds thin more than expected, while resolution hinges on official AEMET station readings. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
4 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from AEMET and major models indicate a minimum temperature near 21–22°C for Madrid on September 4, 2026, under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds.** This reflects a warm air mass with daytime highs of 36–38°C, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling despite calm conditions that otherwise favor temperature drops. Historical September 4 averages sit at 17.3°C, but the ongoing heatwave pattern elevates the floor. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 20–25°C bins near 44%, with 17°C or below only marginally ahead at 50%, highlighting uncertainty in exact overnight cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or minor model spread in steering flow. Traders appear weighting the risk of slightly stronger cooling if winds drop further or if high clouds thin more than expected, while resolution hinges on official AEMET station readings. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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