Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 13°C in Shanghai on April 28, driven by confirmed morning observations from the official Xujiahui observatory registering exactly 13°C around dawn, with daytime readings holding steady above 14°C amid persistent cloud cover and light showers. This positioning reflects tight alignment across China Meteorological Administration guidance, GFS, and ECMWF model ensembles, which projected minima of 12–14°C under stable southerly flows and urban heat island effects mitigating radiative cooling—consistent with Shanghai's April climatological average low of 11–13°C but elevated by recent warmer anomalies. Realistic challenges include an improbable pre-midnight cold surge if skies unexpectedly clear, though current infrared satellite imagery shows sustained overcast conditions; final daily summary from CMA observations will confirm resolution shortly after local midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 28 de abril?
¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 28 de abril?
13°C 100.0%
7°C o menos <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$17,042 Vol.
$17,042 Vol.
28 abr 2026
7°C o menos
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
Sí
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C o más
No
13°C 100.0%
7°C o menos <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$17,042 Vol.
$17,042 Vol.
28 abr 2026
7°C o menos
$489 Vol.
No
8°C
$712 Vol.
No
9°C
$676 Vol.
No
10°C
$1,137 Vol.
No
11°C
$1,607 Vol.
No
12°C
$2,972 Vol.
No
13°C
$1,637 Vol.
Sí
14°C
$916 Vol.
No
15°C
$2,082 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,375 Vol.
No
17°C o más
$3,440 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 13°C in Shanghai on April 28, driven by confirmed morning observations from the official Xujiahui observatory registering exactly 13°C around dawn, with daytime readings holding steady above 14°C amid persistent cloud cover and light showers. This positioning reflects tight alignment across China Meteorological Administration guidance, GFS, and ECMWF model ensembles, which projected minima of 12–14°C under stable southerly flows and urban heat island effects mitigating radiative cooling—consistent with Shanghai's April climatological average low of 11–13°C but elevated by recent warmer anomalies. Realistic challenges include an improbable pre-midnight cold surge if skies unexpectedly clear, though current infrared satellite imagery shows sustained overcast conditions; final daily summary from CMA observations will confirm resolution shortly after local midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$17,042Fecha de finalización
28 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 13°C in Shanghai on April 28, driven by confirmed morning observations from the official Xujiahui observatory registering exactly 13°C around dawn, with daytime readings holding steady above 14°C amid persistent cloud cover and light showers. This positioning reflects tight alignment across China Meteorological Administration guidance, GFS, and ECMWF model ensembles, which projected minima of 12–14°C under stable southerly flows and urban heat island effects mitigating radiative cooling—consistent with Shanghai's April climatological average low of 11–13°C but elevated by recent warmer anomalies. Realistic challenges include an improbable pre-midnight cold surge if skies unexpectedly clear, though current infrared satellite imagery shows sustained overcast conditions; final daily summary from CMA observations will confirm resolution shortly after local midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$17,042Fecha de finalización
28 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 13°C in Shanghai on April 28, driven by confirmed morning observations from the official Xujiahui observatory registering exactly 13°C around dawn, with daytime readings holding steady above 14°C amid persistent cloud cover and light showers. This positioning reflects tight alignment across China Meteorological Administration guidance, GFS, and ECMWF model ensembles, which projected minima of 12–14°C under stable southerly flows and urban heat island effects mitigating radiative cooling—consistent with Shanghai's April climatological average low of 11–13°C but elevated by recent warmer anomalies. Realistic challenges include an improbable pre-midnight cold surge if skies unexpectedly clear, though current infrared satellite imagery shows sustained overcast conditions; final daily summary from CMA observations will confirm resolution shortly after local midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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