Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the Polish IMGW and international runs points to clear or partly cloudy skies over Warsaw on the night of August 29–30 under building high pressure, favoring radiative cooling that can drop overnight lows toward 14–17°C. Traders appear to weigh the risk of even cooler readings if winds remain light and dew points stay suppressed, pushing implied probabilities toward the 9–13°C range despite most guidance centering higher. Key differentiators include the extent of cloud cover, which would trap longwave radiation and moderate minima, versus any lingering moisture from Saturday’s showers that could enhance cooling. Updated model runs and official IMGW briefings over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Varsovia el 30 de agosto?
¿Temperatura más baja en Varsovia el 30 de agosto?
9°C or below 89%
18°C 84%
10°C 80%
11°C 80%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 ago 2026
9°C or below
89%
10°C
80%
11°C
80%
12°C
45%
13°C
49%
14°C
80%
15°C
80%
16°C
80%
17°C
80%
18°C
84%
19°C or higher
2%
9°C or below 89%
18°C 84%
10°C 80%
11°C 80%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 ago 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
89%
10°C
$0 Vol.
80%
11°C
$0 Vol.
80%
12°C
$0 Vol.
45%
13°C
$0 Vol.
49%
14°C
$0 Vol.
80%
15°C
$0 Vol.
80%
16°C
$0 Vol.
80%
17°C
$0 Vol.
80%
18°C
$5 Vol.
84%
19°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the Polish IMGW and international runs points to clear or partly cloudy skies over Warsaw on the night of August 29–30 under building high pressure, favoring radiative cooling that can drop overnight lows toward 14–17°C. Traders appear to weigh the risk of even cooler readings if winds remain light and dew points stay suppressed, pushing implied probabilities toward the 9–13°C range despite most guidance centering higher. Key differentiators include the extent of cloud cover, which would trap longwave radiation and moderate minima, versus any lingering moisture from Saturday’s showers that could enhance cooling. Updated model runs and official IMGW briefings over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$10Fecha de finalización
30 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the Polish IMGW and international runs points to clear or partly cloudy skies over Warsaw on the night of August 29–30 under building high pressure, favoring radiative cooling that can drop overnight lows toward 14–17°C. Traders appear to weigh the risk of even cooler readings if winds remain light and dew points stay suppressed, pushing implied probabilities toward the 9–13°C range despite most guidance centering higher. Key differentiators include the extent of cloud cover, which would trap longwave radiation and moderate minima, versus any lingering moisture from Saturday’s showers that could enhance cooling. Updated model runs and official IMGW briefings over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$10Fecha de finalización
30 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the Polish IMGW and international runs points to clear or partly cloudy skies over Warsaw on the night of August 29–30 under building high pressure, favoring radiative cooling that can drop overnight lows toward 14–17°C. Traders appear to weigh the risk of even cooler readings if winds remain light and dew points stay suppressed, pushing implied probabilities toward the 9–13°C range despite most guidance centering higher. Key differentiators include the extent of cloud cover, which would trap longwave radiation and moderate minima, versus any lingering moisture from Saturday’s showers that could enhance cooling. Updated model runs and official IMGW briefings over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes